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2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments-2
<b>'No electoral alliance with BSP'</b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->KOCHI: Ruling out any electoral alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party in the coming Lok Sabha polls,  the CPI(M) said the two parties would, however, come together on common issues to keep the Congress-led UPA and BJP-led NDA at bay.

CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat, while interacting with reporters in Kochi,  told that BSP is a party which does not enter into poll alliances. Everybody knows that. So, neither the BSP nor the CPI(M) is talking about having seat or electoral adjustments.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>LS poll in April, likely over 7-9 phases</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The 15th Lok Sabha elections will be held in April-May, spread over six weeks with the largest number of seven to nine phases, setting a new record for the parliamentary elections. Tentatively, the first phase is likely on April 10 and the entire process will end on May 10, 2009.

The Election Commission has drawn up a tentative plan to announce the elections on March 10, the date from which the model code of conduct for political parties and the government comes into force.


<b>New Chief Election Commissioner </b>
Navin Chawla, the controversial Election Commissioner whose case is still pending with Gopalaswami for disposal as directed by the Supreme Court, will be taking over as the new CEC by virtue of his seniority, unless Gopalaswami gives an adverse recommendation to the President against him for removal from the Election Commission.

Get ready for most corrupt election by Sonia and Moron SIngh in Indian history.
If youth is being made the calling card of Congress, it's because the insiders feel it provides a stark contrast with rival PM aspirant and octogenarian LK Advani. The Congress is not tiring of berating the rivals for offering an old guard to lead a dramatically changing demography which would soon have the maximum youth force in the world.

The pressure seems to be telling on BJP which has launched a website to take Advani's message to youngsters as part of a youth-specific plan.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>PMK set to quit UPA</b>
J Gopikrishnan | New Delhi
To align with ADMK-led front in TN
With Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi strongly opposed to the continuation of the PMK in the UPA, the stage is set for the PMK to quit the alliance and align with the AIADMK-led front in the State that comprises among others the Left parties and MDMK.

According to top AIADMK sources, party supremo J Jayalalithaa is willing to accommodate the PMK by offering as many as six Lok Sabha seats in the northern parts of Tamil Nadu.

While the PMK is already out of the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu, its break with the UPA was only a matter of time. Sources said a formal decision could come once the elections were announced. Until then, Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss and Minister of State for Railways R Velu would continue in the Central Government.

While the<b> Left Front has managed to tie up with the regional parties in various southern States, the J&K-based PDP, now out of the UPA, too has expressed interest in being part of a Left-sponsored third alternative</b>.

The entire patch-up attempt came apart when the <b>PMK did not support the DMK candidate in the recent prestigious bypoll to the Thirumangala seat. The UPA chief too snubbed the PMK when she refused to meet a PMK delegation on the Sri Lanka Tamil issue.</b>

Though PMK chief Dr S Ramadoss met Karunanidhi after the incident and asked him to facilitate an appointment with Sonia Gandhi, the meeting did not materialise. Stung and angry PMK chief on Saturday visited the pro-LTTE leaders staging a fast unto death in Chennai and performed his services to the leaders as physician by checking them with stethoscope. He also came down heavily against the Centre and Karunanidhi for ‘dillydallying’ on Sri Lankan issue.

<b>The Left parties are widening their net to get in non-Congress and non-BJP partners in their front. After losing Mayawati, Left leaders are hunting for other regional parties to widen their idea of ‘Third Alternative’</b>. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The point to note is that there is nothing in common between what JJ and CPM profess. There were lot of things in common between JJ and BJP yet JJ goes for alliance with the CPM and CPI. Thol and Ramdoss support LTTE but JJ vehemently opposes. Yet they are going to form alliance. DMK and the Congress are opposed on the support for LTTE and they form alliance.

All these point to the worst opportunism and they are making a mockery of democracy. Well, you put out some fodder to the herds of voters and you win the election!

How long are we going to put up with this bull sh1t?
<b>Left’s gameplan to checkmate Congress in AP</b>

<b>Kalyan's bonhomie with SP made congress discomfort</b>
22 Jan 2009, 0118 hrs IST, Manjari Mishra, TNN

LUCKNOW: The proposed pre-poll alliance with the Samajwadi Party is fast turning out to be a knotty affair for UP Congress party. If the unilateral announcements of three successive lists of candidates by SP satraps left their top leadership with bruised egos, Tuesday's handshake between Mulayam and Kalyan Singh - the toast of the hard-core Hindutva forces till about 48 hours ago - has surely given them goosebumps. Shocked Congressmen are desperately trying to figure out the possible fallout of lending support to the "sazayafta mulzim" (convicted accused) in the Babri demolition drama, who they fear would only end up being an albatross around their neck.

<b>Terming the development "utterly juvenile on part of SP", one senior leader said that "the much hyped alliance being finalised in Delhi, under the changed scenario will only prove suicidal." "What face do we have now to go to minority community and ask for their votes," he asked. Any connect - overt or covert with Kalyan, even a political green horn can clearly see is the surest way of wiping out the Muslim base. And the community finally inching towards the Congress camp, once again be forced to retrace its step, he feared.</b>

Recalling how during the last assembly elections even voters in Okhla had voted for Congress candidate despite Amar Singh's populist tactics in the Batla House encounter, including raising a demand for a judicial inquiry, another leader called the friendship with Kalyan surest way offering Mayawati Muslim votes on a platter. They had rejected Mulayam during the 2007 assembly elections and 2009 Parliament poll is our golden chance. Despite the Kalyan factor looming large in the background there is no chance of wooing them back.

"With his son Rajveer catapulted to the post of SP's national general secretary and all that feet-touching drama by Amar Singh before the TV cameras, the message is not lost on anyone. Kalyan's declaration that he did not intend to join SP is of little consequence, for Yadav may forget how the former BJP vice-president called him the promoter of Islamic terrorism in India, but the voters are sure to remember," another concerned leader pointed out .

Despite the fear of high command, specially after the action taken against Satyavrat Chaturvedi, former UPCC unit in charge, for his salvo at Amar Singh, murmurs of discontent is becoming more and more audible. A highly agitated senior leader with sizable minority support said that he had been getting frantic phone calls from supporters to contact unit in charge Digvijay Singh and Motilal Vora and question them about how long the humiliation continue. The suspense is becoming too long and agonising for everyone, he said.
<b>Jharkhand: BJP trying to get Marandi back in fold</b>
Should BJP not ally with BSP in UP in addition to Ajit Singh? On their own, they can not win more than 10, most 15 seats out of 80. With BSP, a huge victory in UP, and a guaranteed return to power in Delhi. (But they may have to sacrifice the PM-ship to Mayawati)
In India politics is played on the basis of vote banks. These vote banks are based on Castes and minority-religions. So these castes and minority-religions become assets and these assets are aggrandised by leaders of the castes and minority-religions. The caste and religious conflicts tend to sustain these vote banks and therefore they cannot be joined at will. During the elections these 'leaders' deliver their vote-banks to the highest bidder.

In U.P. Mayavathi appeals to the 'dispossesed' Hindu castes and became the leader of the 'Dalit' party. Muslims (and Christians as well) are caste-ridden and so she appeals to 'Dalits' of all religions. In U.P. the Brahmins are a sizeable section and they have formed into a vote bank. Among the Brahmins there are fewer landed-gentry as opposed to other land-owning Hindus and she was able to co-opt the Brahmins into her fold and become a power to recon with as the party of the dispossed.

In nature every thing exists in pairs of opposites and these entities of caste and minority-religions parities, each of which need one or more enemies and the label 'enemy' had to be pinned on some. Congress and the BJP fit this label.

This should answer your question why Mayawathi cannot align with the BJP and go to the poll. She could align post-poll if necessary.

Therefore you should know that Mulayam is a Yadav principally and not a socialist and Kalyan is a Lodh and not BJP. If you refuse to identify yourself (and others) with any caste you are no asset and no party would want you!

This is Indian Secular Democracy! Question is: Can you identify with any of the three components that makes the State viz. 'Indian', 'Secular' and 'Democracy'? If not, you are a votary for Viraat Brihat Hindutva!

Read about the DOG who will be king-maker in 09 (according to PR Siddharth)
Wont Mulayam and Kalyan singh decimate BSP together. Where is the case for BJP in UP? So defection of Kalyan Singh is a non factor for BJP provided the rot doesnt spillover.

Also whats the issue in Punjab. The cabinet looks worse than INC dynasty.


<!--QuoteBegin-"fanne"+-->QUOTE("fanne")<!--QuoteEBegin-->Well I am not from AP, but only a very very keen observer/follower of politics. You might have read some of my prediction under different pen names at other websites (and I like my anonymity). Anyways, so here is what I have gathered reading from many analyst, some genuine and others not. Some facts -

1. There is no anti-incumbency in AP. In fact most of the programmes of YSR like Rs 2 Rice has been popular.
2. His immediate family has been deep into corruption - may or may not be a poll issue.
3. Unlike in other states, YSR has already started poll preparations, with the help of state machinery (read intelligence agencies)
4. BJP may be in bad shape but in Hyderabad region, it will be in play in all LS seats and post delimitation might pull off few.
5. AP can be divided, for poll purposes in many parts - Telengana (16-18 seats, depending on whom you talk to), Andhra (costal) - 12, Rayalseema - 9 and North AP - 5. Hyderabad region falls in Telengana rgion.
6. There is of course pro-Telengana sentiment in most of Telengana region, except for Hydrabad region apposing it (4-6 Lok Sabha seat). Hyderabad region apposing it comes from Politicsparty.com, whos assertions in tha past have failed miserabely. But Since S. Reddy being from AP I would think he would know better.
7. In Hyderabad region, the Muslims are definitely apposed to Telengana, they see as the reduction of their power and also this area being sensitive would see a BJP government sooner than combined AP.
8. In Hydrabad region, the polirisation is there, but it being cosmopolitan, many undercurrents come into play.
9. The AP votes are going to be divided at least 3 ways and somewhere 4-5 ways. It may follow UP pattern, where a party with overall 30% vote might win big. The congress is understood to be the dominant pole here, even if it gets lesser votes than last time.
10. The above model though fails if you go by the political wisdom, that in each region, it will be mainly bipolar, with the third pole being a distinct third. In Telengana it is rumored to between TDP and congress, where TDP is suppose to sweep.
11. In Northern Andhra it is advantage PR, going by the rallies.
12. Costal is up for grabs; Congress might pull off in 3 way contest.
13. Satyam may or may not have impact. Raju community in East Godavari may break from Cong. It mostly looks like drawing room concern. (My reading)
14.In recent district elections (reported only in Telgu newspapers, wonder why, less than a month ago), 7 districts in Costal AP went to poll. This is for district level heads (a 4 tier election, only in AP I guess). 1 district usually has more than 1 lok sabha seat. 3 of these were won by TDP, 1 by PR, 3 by congress and 1 among 3 by congress person, supported by PR and this person has already joined PR. (and have not been able to confirm it. This led to some cabinet ministers resigning from Cong. The local election should not be taken as they are faught on very local issues, but it gives some headway. On village level election at the same time Congress did very well. I guess 31 seats out of 49.

Conclusion - This is too close to call. The election can go any which way. Congress may get anything between 6-30 seats. Anybody making any sweeping generalization either does not know what he is talking about or knows just too much, more than all the bloggers and pundits out there. If it is the later case, please I am all ears.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

yuvaraj is coming..


<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->UPA to go into huddle

A coronary angiography at the All Indian Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) on Wednesday has revealed more than one partial blockage in the arteries of prime minister Manmohan Singh's heart.

The PM is being closely monitored to determine the line of treatment. For someone who has had a bypass surgery in 1990 followed by an angioplasty in 2004 before becoming PM, perhaps the only course of action is another bypass. Singh's panel of doctors is hopeful that a surgery may not be necessary if the medication does its work and he is careful.

The Congress will now have to decide how much to involve him in the hectic schedule ahead without straining him.

Senior party and government leaders are expected to hold a war council on Thursday night after Mukherjee returns from his Kabul visit. The main concern is the Republic Day parade, which showcases the government to the country and the world. Obviously, the PM as head of government is an important figure here even though the president, as head of the republic, takes the salute.

With doctors advising rest, it may not be possible for Singh to be present for the two-and-a-half hour extravaganza on Rajpath.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Pawar is staking claim to PM ship.

Arjun Singh is hopping mad.

Pranab is shunted to PCC of WB INC!
India has a billion people and more. But you are going to end up with a 76 year old man to 'act' as Prime Minister heading a higgledy-piggledy promiscuity of corrupt politicians filtered from the most cantankerous political outfits. Besides doing balancing act among these wire pullers and the madam, he has also to carry the responsibility of Finance and Foreign Affairs. I am not sure how far it is true but this MP from the Muslim majority riding is said to be a Christian convertee. One of his cabinet colleague when faced with the Pakistanis terrorising Mumbai could come out and say not a word of condemnation against the terrorists but hurl accusation that some Hindu despatcher had sent the ATS chieftains to face the terrorists so as to get killed!! The biggest act of diplomacy of this cabinet was to tell the whole world that they had verfied that accousation of the Muslim minister and found that his concern(!?) is not true. Bravo!!! This satisfied the minister so he decided to be part of the ministry. Wow!! With a defence minister who is a known Christian with job to pin terrorist label on the Hindus, with a VP who became a VP just because he is a Muslim and with the foreign lady who was only a bar maid but imagined that she was a graduate of Cambridge University but truthfully of the fascist breed as the mother superior - one would have to conclude that the billion plus are idiots! And what of those who think that this country which pisses in its pants and would be afraid to call those who blew up its financial capital as terrorists let alone smack them, is on the verge of being a super-power!


This is interesting. What conclusions can be drawn from this ? My take..

1. Pakis are getting away and there is going to be much confusion (as if this wasnt enough already).
2. INC is sure they arent getting good numbers.
3. Behenji+3rd-front is a serious force to be reckoned with in this election. And god forbid they do come in, we will go back to DeveGowda/Gujral situation again.
4. In general India is in for tough times politically - there will be no strong center for another 5 years or so.


Added : At the back of mind, I was thinking this would have been a perfect time for Rahul-baba to come in. But it seems that

a. Gandhi pariwar is not willing to completely own UPA admin
b. SG is still sh1t scared of taking hot seat - terrorists, u-turn on silent voice, white woman ruling or all of them.
c. Rahul-baba has no leadership skills - he still can only think in terms of agit-prop.

I cant believe I am saying this but considering the alternatives, perhaps Rahul-baba growing some b@lls to actually lead might not be such a bad thing - when considering behenji+3rd-front. Or (gasp!) just get Priyanka-baby to take charge and leave Rahul-baba for Miliband.
<!--QuoteBegin-rajesh_g+Jan 25 2009, 05:40 AM-->QUOTE(rajesh_g @ Jan 25 2009, 05:40 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->I cant believe I am saying this but considering the alternatives, perhaps Rahul-baba growing some b@lls to actually lead might not be such a bad thing - when considering behenji+3rd-front.[right][snapback]93770[/snapback][/right]<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->Wishing for Constantine is a very bad plan.
This is going to be a cold election. Neither candidate nor party will be able to waft on hot air. If the BJP wants to succeed, it has to remember a key fact: the Hindu voter is outgrowing communal rhetoric. He wants more food and less fear. At the moment he is getting the reverse.

The Congress has one advantage: Muslims, its main votebank, do not vote for something; they vote against someone. This suits the Congress perfectly. It feeds fear to Muslims, and offers development to other electorates.

In the above article from M J Akbar, he says..

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->But such is the perceived fluidity of options that Pranab Mukherjee,<b> Nitish Kumar</b>, Jayalalitha, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Chandra Babu Naidu and Sharad Pawar see themselves as possible occupants of 10 Janpath. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I have never heard Nitish in this context. Thats interesting..


Huskyji, I am only wishing - by its actions INC thinks Rahul-baba doesnt have b@lls.

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh admitted the fact cannot be wished away that it was during Kalyan Singh's tenure as Uttar Pradesh chief minister that the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya was demolished in 1992. However, it would not deter the Congress from forging ties with the Samajwadi Party, he said.

Singh, Congress in charge of Uttar Pradesh affairs, denied that it would tarnish the party's secular credentials.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

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