ravish 18:
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->So it is not that in these States the former BJP supporters remained indoors. It may be that many of them have changed sides and ensured the victory of the Congress and the UPA.If they had stayed back en mass and not participated in the voting then the figures should have been much lower.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Nehru bloodlinists like you have this irritating analytical ability using which they can produce any analysis through their head without looking for any data.
Here are some facts from the election of 1999 which saw NDA come to power on its own. Following shows the polling% in the states which had largely elected BJP/NDA majority, and which made BJP lose/not reach the expected-mark, this time:
UTTAR PRADESH 53.63 (dropped to 48.01 in 2009) -> 5+% polling drop!
MADHYA PRADESH 54.94 (dropped to 51.31 in 2009) -> 4+% polling drop!
MAHARASHTRA 62.72 (dropped to 51.01 in 2009) -> 11+% polling drop!
RAJASTHAN 53.94 (48.43 2009) -> 5+% polling drop!
GUJARAT 47.73 (stays at 47.90) - no change, not much change in seats too.
the states which had elected NDA component, which later ran away:
ANDHRA PRADESH 69.49 (72.36 in 09) -> 3% increase, Congress swing
TAMIL NADU 58.72 (72.57 in 09) -> 14% increase, DMK swing
what it tell us is two things:
- In BJP-presence states, the reduced polling correlates with BJP's loss of votes. Which in turn means what i suggested before: core voters of BJP were not motivated to vote for BJP, they stayed home (reducing the polling%, and overall drop in BJP votes by 2+ national% and about 18+% on BJP's base). We can test this hypothesis even at the constituency level dataset too. Where BJP came at second position and lost by a small (<1-2%) margin, it was due to drop in polling in that Lok Sabha. At a higher aggregation, national average of averages was about 60.6% in 99 - as opposed to 58.8% of 09, which too corresponds with the loss in BJP vote share!
- Shifting of vote to Congress in not from BJP, but from the loss of vote by the partners of UPA: Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam etc. Most notably it is apparent that Congress was rewarded for its appeasement policy by the Moslems. This can be seen especially in UP and Bihar, where many Congress candidates have won in the moslem-dominated constituencies defeating their nearesr rivals from BJP (E.g. Match-fixer of Hyderabad winning from Moradabad). At some places the contest for moslem votes was direct one between Cong and other moslem-lovers, e.g. in Rampur where Jaya Prada of SP defeated Congress' Begum Noor Bano --
- Above signifies that the revival of congress is thanks to a) BJP's inability to motivate its base, b) return of the moslem, c) defeat of the commies in WB!
- BSP, while did not show massive win in terms of seats, has shown how its popularity has increased. It is now the third largest party after Cong and BJP not only by number of seats but more importantly by vote shares, with 6+% national votes, displacing CPIM from this position. Was I wrong in suggesting that BJP should give away PM candidature to Mayawati and contest jointly? That would have seen a BJP-BSP government in Delhi today. Would that have been less acceptable to BJP than the present outcome?
- In fact, there is some trend to show that BJP votes in UP, MP, Raj, Punjab, and finally Bihar, are more naturally inclined to eventually migrate to BSP. Let us see if Mayawati is intelligent enough to understand it and stop moslem appeasement. Moslem certainly understands this.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->So it is not that in these States the former BJP supporters remained indoors. It may be that many of them have changed sides and ensured the victory of the Congress and the UPA.If they had stayed back en mass and not participated in the voting then the figures should have been much lower.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Nehru bloodlinists like you have this irritating analytical ability using which they can produce any analysis through their head without looking for any data.
Here are some facts from the election of 1999 which saw NDA come to power on its own. Following shows the polling% in the states which had largely elected BJP/NDA majority, and which made BJP lose/not reach the expected-mark, this time:
UTTAR PRADESH 53.63 (dropped to 48.01 in 2009) -> 5+% polling drop!
MADHYA PRADESH 54.94 (dropped to 51.31 in 2009) -> 4+% polling drop!
MAHARASHTRA 62.72 (dropped to 51.01 in 2009) -> 11+% polling drop!
RAJASTHAN 53.94 (48.43 2009) -> 5+% polling drop!
GUJARAT 47.73 (stays at 47.90) - no change, not much change in seats too.
the states which had elected NDA component, which later ran away:
ANDHRA PRADESH 69.49 (72.36 in 09) -> 3% increase, Congress swing
TAMIL NADU 58.72 (72.57 in 09) -> 14% increase, DMK swing
what it tell us is two things:
- In BJP-presence states, the reduced polling correlates with BJP's loss of votes. Which in turn means what i suggested before: core voters of BJP were not motivated to vote for BJP, they stayed home (reducing the polling%, and overall drop in BJP votes by 2+ national% and about 18+% on BJP's base). We can test this hypothesis even at the constituency level dataset too. Where BJP came at second position and lost by a small (<1-2%) margin, it was due to drop in polling in that Lok Sabha. At a higher aggregation, national average of averages was about 60.6% in 99 - as opposed to 58.8% of 09, which too corresponds with the loss in BJP vote share!
- Shifting of vote to Congress in not from BJP, but from the loss of vote by the partners of UPA: Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam etc. Most notably it is apparent that Congress was rewarded for its appeasement policy by the Moslems. This can be seen especially in UP and Bihar, where many Congress candidates have won in the moslem-dominated constituencies defeating their nearesr rivals from BJP (E.g. Match-fixer of Hyderabad winning from Moradabad). At some places the contest for moslem votes was direct one between Cong and other moslem-lovers, e.g. in Rampur where Jaya Prada of SP defeated Congress' Begum Noor Bano --
- Above signifies that the revival of congress is thanks to a) BJP's inability to motivate its base, b) return of the moslem, c) defeat of the commies in WB!
- BSP, while did not show massive win in terms of seats, has shown how its popularity has increased. It is now the third largest party after Cong and BJP not only by number of seats but more importantly by vote shares, with 6+% national votes, displacing CPIM from this position. Was I wrong in suggesting that BJP should give away PM candidature to Mayawati and contest jointly? That would have seen a BJP-BSP government in Delhi today. Would that have been less acceptable to BJP than the present outcome?
- In fact, there is some trend to show that BJP votes in UP, MP, Raj, Punjab, and finally Bihar, are more naturally inclined to eventually migrate to BSP. Let us see if Mayawati is intelligent enough to understand it and stop moslem appeasement. Moslem certainly understands this.