12-17-2005, 11:24 PM
The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization
This is an interesting article. He makes a distinction between Arab civilization and an Islamic one. The premise behind such a distinction is somewhat suspect,but his resulting conclusions do not seem to be much different from current policy.
He proposes thefollowing course ofactions
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The grand strategic concept that provides the best chance of success is the one that served us so well in the Cold Warâcontainment. No matter what else we do we must position ourselves to contain the effects of the complete collapse of Arab civilization. Already 10 percent of the French population is from Muslim North Africa. Europe's ability to assimilate a larger flood of economic refugees is questionable. And mass migration is just one effect a total collapse will have. Containment will mean adopting and maintaining difficult policy choices, which include:
Working closely with the European nations to defend their southern border against the mass migration of tens of millions of destitute Arabs as well as armed confrontations with failing Arab states.
Renewing our close ties with Turkey and making that nation a bulwark against the effects of collapse.
Working to help modernize and integrate the Russian military into an enhanced European defense structure.
<b>Ensuring China is a partner in this containment effort.Â
Propping up weak border states that are already dealing with the spillover effects of Arab collapseâsuch as Pakistan and the new Caucasus states.</b>
Assisting the Iranian popular will to establish a government not based on a religious oligarchy. The Persian people may form an eastern bulwark against collapse.
Plan for the security of critical resources even during possible upheavals and regional turmoil.
Spillover effects such as terrorist groups already evident in places like Indonesia and the Philippines must be eradicated or reversed.
We need to be clear that this is not a failure of Islam. In this regard we must help Muslims outside of the Arab world find their own interpretations of their faith and not fall prey to those being espoused by the Arab worldâWahhabism.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He concludes with the following
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->"By accepting that we need to contain the effects of a failing Arab civilization we are then free to adopt one of three basic approaches:
Attempt to accelerate the collapse and pick up the pieces, akin to letting an alcoholic hit bottom.
To contain the effects, but not to interfere with the fall for good or bad.
Reverse the tide when and where we can.
For a number of ethical and practical reasons the third choice is the one that should and is most likely to be adopted, keeping in mind that resisting the macro-forces of historical change will not be easy.
By adopting the third option we can craft policies to improve economic conditions and help specific regions within the Arab world adapt to encroaching modernity.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Note the reference to Pakistan and China and the compete absence of India anywhere in the article
Note also their perception that the collapse of the Arab civilization is not only an undesirable outcome but an unethical one and also the need to prop up a failing Pakistate .
This is an interesting article. He makes a distinction between Arab civilization and an Islamic one. The premise behind such a distinction is somewhat suspect,but his resulting conclusions do not seem to be much different from current policy.
He proposes thefollowing course ofactions
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The grand strategic concept that provides the best chance of success is the one that served us so well in the Cold Warâcontainment. No matter what else we do we must position ourselves to contain the effects of the complete collapse of Arab civilization. Already 10 percent of the French population is from Muslim North Africa. Europe's ability to assimilate a larger flood of economic refugees is questionable. And mass migration is just one effect a total collapse will have. Containment will mean adopting and maintaining difficult policy choices, which include:
Working closely with the European nations to defend their southern border against the mass migration of tens of millions of destitute Arabs as well as armed confrontations with failing Arab states.
Renewing our close ties with Turkey and making that nation a bulwark against the effects of collapse.
Working to help modernize and integrate the Russian military into an enhanced European defense structure.
<b>Ensuring China is a partner in this containment effort.Â
Propping up weak border states that are already dealing with the spillover effects of Arab collapseâsuch as Pakistan and the new Caucasus states.</b>
Assisting the Iranian popular will to establish a government not based on a religious oligarchy. The Persian people may form an eastern bulwark against collapse.
Plan for the security of critical resources even during possible upheavals and regional turmoil.
Spillover effects such as terrorist groups already evident in places like Indonesia and the Philippines must be eradicated or reversed.
We need to be clear that this is not a failure of Islam. In this regard we must help Muslims outside of the Arab world find their own interpretations of their faith and not fall prey to those being espoused by the Arab worldâWahhabism.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He concludes with the following
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->"By accepting that we need to contain the effects of a failing Arab civilization we are then free to adopt one of three basic approaches:
Attempt to accelerate the collapse and pick up the pieces, akin to letting an alcoholic hit bottom.
To contain the effects, but not to interfere with the fall for good or bad.
Reverse the tide when and where we can.
For a number of ethical and practical reasons the third choice is the one that should and is most likely to be adopted, keeping in mind that resisting the macro-forces of historical change will not be easy.
By adopting the third option we can craft policies to improve economic conditions and help specific regions within the Arab world adapt to encroaching modernity.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Note the reference to Pakistan and China and the compete absence of India anywhere in the article
Note also their perception that the collapse of the Arab civilization is not only an undesirable outcome but an unethical one and also the need to prop up a failing Pakistate .