11-24-2005, 01:19 AM
Decline and fall of the RJD
Fifteen years after he took Bihar by storm, Lalu Prasad has been handed a drubbing so severe it has stunned pundit and pollster alike. That the sun was setting on the 15-year reign of the Rashtriya Janata Dal was obvious enough. Yet neither the exit polls nor reports emerging from the field captured the scale of voter dissatisfaction with what, in the final months, came to be seen as the Lalu-Buta regime. In the event, it was a clean sweep for the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party combine spearheaded by Nitish Kumar.
Of the 243 seats on offer, the JD (U)-BJP has mopped up 143, leaving 65 to the RJD-Congress-Communist Party of India (Marxist) alliance. As expected, the Ram Vilas Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party-Communist Party of India alliance finished at the bottom of the pile with 13 seats. Without any doubt the election belongs to Mr. Kumar. Working determinedly among the people, the JD(U) leader capitalised on the many follies of Governor's rule. A key strategy was to woo oppressed caste groups long neglected by the RJD.
The addition of a good chunk of the votes of Most Backward Classes to the JD (U)-BJP's kurmi-upper caste base appears to have tilted the balance against the RJD. Who would believe that 18 months ago, Mr. Prasad's party with its allies, the Congress and the LJP, made short work of the National Democratic Alliance, capturing 29 of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats on a 44.4 per cent vote share?
<i>The media was used effectively for this
</i>
This picture-perfect alliance was in tatters by February 2005. With the Congress opting to go with Mr. Paswan, the RJD lost that Assembly election. But it was still the single largest party, with 75 seats and a vote share of 25.05 per cent. Since then, it has lost 21 seats and a couple of percentage points in vote share. This is a huge decline from the 30.7 per cent the RJD polled in the May 2004 Lok Sabha election. The RJD-Congress-CPI(M) alliance seemed to have conventional arithmetic on its side but what is clear is that this cannot overcome swings in the popular mood.
Two factors appear to have done in the alliance. The first was the perception that Mr. Prasad was a proxy ruler who manipulated the Raj Bhavan and refused to play fair. The second factor was the Union Cabinet's midnight decision to dissolve the House.
The Supreme Court's verdict holding this act to be unconstitutional sealed Mr. Prasad's fate. The RJD chief is not one to be underestimated: he retains considerable support among the deprived. Meanwhile, there is a need for serious reflection on the recent trend of low voter turnout in Bihar. It declined from 46.5 per cent in February 2005 â itself a massive drop from 2000 â to 45.5 per cent this time. Such evidence of voter apathy is all the more intriguing considering the nature and size of the JD(U)-BJP victory.
A high voter turnout, signifying protest on the one side and enthusiasm on the other, was a feature of recent elections that delivered emphatic mandates â in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, and Haryana. Nitish Kumar's triumph is a significant break from this pattern.
Fifteen years after he took Bihar by storm, Lalu Prasad has been handed a drubbing so severe it has stunned pundit and pollster alike. That the sun was setting on the 15-year reign of the Rashtriya Janata Dal was obvious enough. Yet neither the exit polls nor reports emerging from the field captured the scale of voter dissatisfaction with what, in the final months, came to be seen as the Lalu-Buta regime. In the event, it was a clean sweep for the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party combine spearheaded by Nitish Kumar.
Of the 243 seats on offer, the JD (U)-BJP has mopped up 143, leaving 65 to the RJD-Congress-Communist Party of India (Marxist) alliance. As expected, the Ram Vilas Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party-Communist Party of India alliance finished at the bottom of the pile with 13 seats. Without any doubt the election belongs to Mr. Kumar. Working determinedly among the people, the JD(U) leader capitalised on the many follies of Governor's rule. A key strategy was to woo oppressed caste groups long neglected by the RJD.
The addition of a good chunk of the votes of Most Backward Classes to the JD (U)-BJP's kurmi-upper caste base appears to have tilted the balance against the RJD. Who would believe that 18 months ago, Mr. Prasad's party with its allies, the Congress and the LJP, made short work of the National Democratic Alliance, capturing 29 of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats on a 44.4 per cent vote share?
<i>The media was used effectively for this
</i>
This picture-perfect alliance was in tatters by February 2005. With the Congress opting to go with Mr. Paswan, the RJD lost that Assembly election. But it was still the single largest party, with 75 seats and a vote share of 25.05 per cent. Since then, it has lost 21 seats and a couple of percentage points in vote share. This is a huge decline from the 30.7 per cent the RJD polled in the May 2004 Lok Sabha election. The RJD-Congress-CPI(M) alliance seemed to have conventional arithmetic on its side but what is clear is that this cannot overcome swings in the popular mood.
Two factors appear to have done in the alliance. The first was the perception that Mr. Prasad was a proxy ruler who manipulated the Raj Bhavan and refused to play fair. The second factor was the Union Cabinet's midnight decision to dissolve the House.
The Supreme Court's verdict holding this act to be unconstitutional sealed Mr. Prasad's fate. The RJD chief is not one to be underestimated: he retains considerable support among the deprived. Meanwhile, there is a need for serious reflection on the recent trend of low voter turnout in Bihar. It declined from 46.5 per cent in February 2005 â itself a massive drop from 2000 â to 45.5 per cent this time. Such evidence of voter apathy is all the more intriguing considering the nature and size of the JD(U)-BJP victory.
A high voter turnout, signifying protest on the one side and enthusiasm on the other, was a feature of recent elections that delivered emphatic mandates â in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, and Haryana. Nitish Kumar's triumph is a significant break from this pattern.