<!--emo&:blink:--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='blink.gif' /><!--endemo--> How many phases are there to this saga?
<!--emo&:blow--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blow.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='blow.gif' /><!--endemo--> 1 more.
1stly, all politicians r sweating and nobody is able to read voter's mind.
2ndly, it's compounded further by such a low turn out.
3rdly, despite all these surveys, Maya Behn has gone on backfoot in 6th phase.
Last but not the least, immediately after constitution of Assembly, if nobody is in position to stake a claim(read without Cong), there is Prez's rule looming large. So, think of it, article 356 needs to go and like center, there should be no provision for Prez's rule in States unless and until there are charges of treason or traitorship.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->How many phases are there to this saga? <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
One more phase to go, last phase on Tuesday May 08, 2007.
Counting will start on 11th
Chandan Mitra | New Delhi
Elections are supposed to reflect the people's will. But in UP, the will of the people has another dimension: The politicians' wish. Irrespective of the final outcome that will be known this Friday, politicians have already started preparing their wish list. And most of them wish Mayawati is kept out somehow.
Parliament nowadays is agog with speculation. In the Central Hall, the canteens on the first floor and the Smoking Room (which is Left-dominated barring a smattering of NDA supporters and the occasional Congress MP) almost the only subject of conversation is the possible outcome of the UP Assembly poll. Most MPs, especially those from north of the Vindhyas, are obsessed with how voters have behaved in India's largest State.
Cross-party conversation begins innocuously enough: "Aur bhaisaa'b, kya lagta hai aapko? Kya honewala hai UP mein?" Congress MPs try to explore the BJP's mind, BJP MPs are busy trying to find out the Congress's strategy, somewhat subdued Samajwadis attempt to hide their mounting insecurity with vocal display of bravado, the Left wants to figure out which way parties will go in the Presidential election, which is likely to be substantially determined by the UP outcome.
The interesting thing is that the two national parties seem to share a common objective. Neither wants anybody to form a Government in Lucknow. The Congress, despite its ostensible support for the BSP, is petrified at the prospect of having to support Mayawati for the Chief Minister's kursi. So in private conversation Congress MPs express a fervent desire for her juggernaut not to cross the 150 mark.
"If she can't go beyond 150, we will not be under pressure to support her. We don't realistically expect to go beyond 30-35 seats. So, if the BSP stops at 120-130, even our support won't help and we will escape the compulsion. But if she crosses 150 and we still don't help her become CM, she is the type who will withdraw support to the UPA Government. Minus her 19 MPs, our Government might fall," projected a senior Congress MP over lunch.
This is a view echoed by most Congressmen in private. They point to Mayawati's role in the recent Delhi MCD poll for it was the BSP that really caused the Congress's rout. "Mayawati always ends up biting the hand that feeds her. She first became a major player riding piggyback on Mulayam Singh in 1993. After she broke with him, she climbed to power on the BJP's back three times. After each doomed alliance, she grew in strength, the BJP weakened. We know she is a dangerous ally, that's why we hope she doesn't win enough seats to make a bid for power with our reluctant backing," explained another seasoned Congress member.
On their part, BJP MPs are hard put to convincingly claim they won't enter into an alliance with BSP or Mulayam Singh. One Left MP confidently asserted: "For BJP it is win-win. They will go either with BSP or Samajwadi." A BJP MP engaged him in argument saying his party was not possessed by a death wish. "How can we do a formal deal with Mulayam Singh? Our core voter will revolt and swell Mayawati's ranks while Mulayam's Muslim vote goes to the Congress or BSP. Thrice-bitten, we are struggling to get our upper caste vote back because it is straying towards BSP. There is no question of allying again with her," he tried hard to convince his interlocutors.
A Congress MP who overheard the debate piped up, "Please tie-up with Mulayam Singh. We are praying you do. That will bring both Muslims and upper castes back to the Congress next time." Angrily, the BJP MP shot back: "Your organisation is non-existent. Even Rahul Gandhi's road show has flopped. That's why you want President's Rule so that you can manipulate things." The Congress leader put his arm around the BJP man's shoulder and, lowering his voice, said, "We know you have no problem with President's Rule either. Your target is Delhi, not Lucknow, at least not yet." The BJP MP made a quick getaway at that point.
Parliament's UP story must necessarily remain incomplete because one of the major protagonists, the BSP, never engages in conversation. They are under instructions from their feared supremo not to get friendly with fellow MPs or indulge in loose talk. When invited to join for a coffee one of them candidly admitted, "Behenji naraaz hoti hain. Unko khabar ho jaati hai (She gets angry and somehow news always reaches her)".
Cut out their formal assertions of outright victory and Samajwadi MPs also fervently wish that BSP's tally stops around the 100 mark. They will not be unhappy if the BJP takes the single-largest party slot although they hope Mulayam will confound pollsters once more and retain power. But the Samajwadis are worried that whether Mayawati makes it to 5 Kalidas Marg or President's Rule happens (which amounts to Sonia Gandhi's reign by proxy), their leaders will face serious harassment from official agencies.
What then? Two theories are doing the rounds. If Mulayam Singh ends up third and finds the BJP in the first position, he may not mind if some of his MLAs indulge in anti-party activity, get expelled, and form a block to support Kalyan Singh. The other theory is that smaller parties and Independents, probably totaling around 40, could come together and stake claim to form a Government with outside support from both SP and BJP. After all, the BJP backed VP Singh's Janata Dal Government till Lalu Prasad Yadav arrested LK Advani in 1989, didn't it? Wags are already saying if Independents can run a Government in Jharkhand mainly with outside support, why can't it happen in UP? The search for Madhu Koda's clone may have already begun!
-- This report is based on privileged conversation and hence no names are given.
<b>Goa Assembly polls: BJP committee to announce first list </b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Panaji, May 08: The Central Election Committee of the BJP is likely to release a list of party candidates today in New Delhi for the <b>June 2 elections to the Goa Legislative Assembly </b>when the Election Commission is expected to issue formal notification.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Star News-Nielsen exit poll</b>,
SP - 96 seats in the
BSP - 137 seats.
BJP - 108 with
Congress - 27
<b>CNN-IBN and Indian Express newspaper</b>
BSP - 152 to 168 seats,
SP - 145 seats
BJP - 108 seats.
Congress - 21 and 27.
While the Star News exit poll put the vote share for
BSP at 26.2 per cent and a swing of 3.2 per cent,
the CNN-IBN survey showed a vote share of 29 per cent and a swing of six per cent for the party.
Both the surveys put the vote share for <b>Congress between 10.3 and 11 per cent</b>.
<!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo--> Uttar Pradesh Polls 2007 - Final Analysis and ScenariosThe fate of Uttar Pradesh is up in the air. As the seven phase all electronic voting comes to a close, Offstumped has the overall numbers crunched with different scenarios analyzed to set the stage for what to anticipate come friday.
First what are the polls saying ?
According to the Star News-Nielsen Exit poll, SP may end up with 96 seats in the 402-seat assembly while main opposition, BSP would be the single largest party with 137 seats.
The exit poll conducted by CNN-IBN and Indian Express newspaper projected BSP would end up with a seat share of 152 to 168 seats followed by SP with 145 seats and BJP ending at the third spot at 108 seats. The seat projection for Congress was put by this survey between 21 and 27.
The TIMES NOW-Hansa Exit poll paints a very gloomy picture for the ruling Samajwadi Party The exit poll gives 100-110 seats to the ruling party. As per the exit polls the Bahujan Samaj Party is getting 116-126 seats. The BJP on the other hand is getting 114-124 seats.
What is the most assured scenario based on Offstumped analysis for the 3 major players ?
This scenario represents the safe bets for the BJP, Mulayam Singh's SP and Mayawati's BSP. At the very least we should see all 3 of them hitting these numbers on Friday.
BJP - 86
SP -89
BSP - 56
The low number for BSP is an indication of 3 things. The BSP unlike the BJP and SP has fewer strongholds, lacks a steady base and its wins in the past have been narrow and opportunistic. The key seats which are indicators for how this scenario will turnout would be the urban strongholds of BJP in Kanpur, Lucknow, Meerut, Varnasi as well as the Yadav strongholds which went to polls in Phase 1.
What is the most optimistic scenario based on Offstumped Analysis for BJP and SP ?
This scenario represents the best case for BJP and SP in theri final tallies. This assumes BJP and SP win all of the assured seats in their traditional strongholds and win all of the tossups where they have a strong chance of winning.
BJP - 124
SP - 117
For the BJP to achieve this best case scenarios it must hope for Muslim vote to fragment significantly and it must also hope seats which have consistently voted out incumbents will favor the BJP cyclically as they have done in the past. For the SP to achieve this best case scenario it must hope for its defection strategies to work. The SP has ensnared a large number of incumbents and past winners from the BSP, BJP and RLD, the key question on friday is how many of these defectors have carried their vote share our to add up to SP's vote base in these seats to turn these tossups into decisive verdicts for SP.
The Big Question - How much of a front runner can the BSP be ?
The media has projected BSP as the largest party and Mayawati as most poised to stake claim for the next government. So what is the best case scenario for Mayawati ?
As you can see from the first scenario Mayawati is not entering this race with a whole lot of insurance. She is betting big on winning a large number of tossups where she has had some strength as well as wresting a good chunk from BJP and SP with her upper caste and OBC calculus.
If Mayawati wins all tossups that she has an edge going she gets up to 94 seats from the 56 assured seats. To do this she has to win all 38 tossups where BSP has a natural advantage going in.
If SP loses all of its tossups to BSP, which is a more likely scenario as most of the time SP is battling BSP in these seats, then Mayawati goes up to 122 with the additional 28 tossups going her way.
If the BJP loses all of its tossups to BSP, which is a highly unlikely scenario given that in a lot of the vote bank battleground seats the fight is between the BJP and SP, then Mayawati gets to her high number of 160.
If Mayawati wins all of the remaining 26 highly competitive close contest seats it gets her to the highly unlikely 186.
What will it take for Mayawati to be within striking distance of forming the government ?
To stake claim to Lucknow Mayawati needs to hit atleast 175 so she can team up with Congress and others to get to a magic number beyond 202. To get to 175 Mayawati needs to
- not lose any of the 56 seats that her strength
- win an additional 119 seats
Where can she get those additional 119 seats ?
There were 130 highly competitive close contests where the margin of victory was 3% or less in the past. Mayawati needs to do the impossible and win 91% of these close contests to get those 119 seats. If Mayawati does the more probable and wins about 50% of these close contests she gets to 121. She still needs another 50 odd seats to get to 175. Those 50 odd seats will have to come from the SP and BJP.
So unless the BSP's gameplan of upper caste and OBC candidates has expanded its vote base dramatically in traditional BJP and SP strongholds it is hard to see how Mayawati will claim Lucknow.
As we await the counting on Friday, that folks is the key question <span style='font-size:21pt;line-height:100%'>Offstumped </span>poses to the mainstream media which has been tom-tomming a Mayawati coronation as a foregone conclusion.
Hindutva is already in winner in voters minds over secularism. There is no need to beat that issue. The BJP has to marry hindutva with a good reliable vote bank. In Uttar Pradesh the BJP has woken up to this reality and is now staring at a 52% vote bank for whom Hindutva along with caste could be a decisive factor.
Previously the hindu right abhorred caste and kept away from using it as an election issue. Fact is that most of the backwards and a significant amount of dalits are proponents of hindutva but vote for parties like the BSP and SP because caste overrides hindutva at the polling booth.
the trick is in combining hindutva with other winning issues at the polls..
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UP: EC to whisk away winners
11 May, 2007 l 0446 hrs ISTlRAJIV RANJAN JHA /TIMES NEWS NETWORK
LUCKNOW: Trust the big daddy of politicians, the Election Commission, to come out with this one â for the first time in the electoral history of the country, security personnel will whisk away the winning candidates to a "safe place" to ensure there is no horse-trading till the new House is formed on May 14.
Deluged with complaints from small parties and independent candidates, the EC, in an unprecedented move, has sent messages to all DMs and police chiefs of the state to see to it that "vulnerable" winners were not left unguarded. In their complaints, these candidates had expressed fears that once elected, mafia dons and known or alleged criminals associated with bigger parties would "hunt" for them.
"We have arranged for a substantial security force to help the local administration in carrying out this exercise," C M Mishra, OSD to EC, said. It is learnt that the elected members could get security for an even longer period on demand.
Mishra also said that of the 650 companies of the Central forces engaged in conducting elections peacefully, 200 have been asked to stay back in the state till vote counting is over on Friday. Mishra said Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), CRPF, CISF, BSF and state administrative police (SAPs) have been asked to take charge of the counting centres.
Three-tier security arrangement will be in place where counting of votes will take place. The police will cover security outside the centres; PAC jawans within the barricaded areas; while Central paramilitary forces will be guarding the inner areas of the centres.
Like previous elections, winners will be provided with gunners â the difference this time being that protection will be given, instead of waiting for candidates to complete more formalities, immediately after they have collected their certificates.
In another first, the results would be declared by observers deputed by EC; returning officers will merely hand over certificates to winners.
In spite of the presence of nearly 900 candidates with criminal background in the fray, EC managed to conduct a violence-free poll, staggered over seven phases.
UP Results are coming in. Mayawati seems to be in position to call some shots. Most likely Rahul bhaiya will crawl into some face saving compromise with her.
<b>DR MOHAMMAD MUSLIM</b> TILOI INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS TRAIL
<b>KESHRI NATH TRIPATHI</b> ALLAHABAD SOUTH BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY TRAIL
<b>REETA BAHUGUNA JOSHI</b> ALLAHABAD SOUTH INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS TRAIL
<b>HAJI YAQUB K</b> KHARKHAUDA UTTAR PRADESH UNITED DEMOCRATIC FRONT TRAIL
<b>Reshma Arif</b> Trails
<b>Mukhtar Ansari </b> Trails
<b>Khalid Azim</b> Trails
<b>Haji Yaqoob</b> Trails
UPCC president <b>Salman Khursheed's wife Louis </b>trailing.
Independent candidate Akhilesh Singh was ahead in <b>Rae Bareli Town </b>constituency.
BSP need either Congress and some others to reach magic number
or
BSP + BJP can do.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav has conceded defeat in the UP Assembly elections as BSP has taken a huge lead and is all set to form the next government in the state. <b>The Congress party has hinted at offering outside support to Mayawati</b><!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
HT - coverage link
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->However, the UP poll outcome seemed to be a waterloo for the BJP as the party suffered major setbacks and was ahead in just about 50 seats. The party's below expectations performance in the state is being considered a personal blow to BJP President Rajnath Singh, who hails from the state.
Despite hectic campaigning in the state by Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her children, the Congress was in the lead in only about 25-30 constituencies. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tongue.gif' /><!--endemo--> UP polls: Politicians prepare wish lists 
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo--> Uttar Pradesh Polls 2007 - Final Analysis and ScenariosThe fate of Uttar Pradesh is up in the air. As the seven phase all electronic voting comes to a close, Offstumped has the overall numbers crunched with different scenarios analyzed to set the stage for what to anticipate come friday.