11-21-2007, 11:37 AM
I have gone through the article âPakistanâs Collapse, Our Problemâ
By FREDERICK W. KAGAN and MICHAEL OâHANLON. Which got published in the International Herald Tribune
The authors have painted a very grim picture of Pakistan in the event of its control going over to the fundamentalists. The problem with the United States has been that it always backs the wrong horse and there are many examples like Shah of Iran, Vietnam, and Cambodia etc. At present, it is already militarily engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and if we go by what is happening in these two countries the end to conflict and stabilization of these two countries are nowhere in sight. The European Union from whom the majority of the NATO force is drawn are not really interested to take in casualties and consequently they want to fight a war without getting killed. In the process the effectiveness of the NATO force as a striking force is questionable. This is the main reason why the Taliban has once again regained control in certain parts of Afghanistan.
In the article there is talk of direct US intervention in Pakistan to prevent the nuclear weapons falling in the hands of the terrorists, in the event of a total collapse of the present administrative set up in that country. The situation in Pakistan is indeed very complex. There is a strong undercurrent of nationalism in the minds of the decision makers as well as in the minds of the general population. In such a situation, there will be very strong reaction to any direct foreign intervention and in fact it will unite the country and all the fundamental forces will become united and more powerful. The Pakistan army is well equipped and trained by the United States since the six decades. With a population of 160 million, majority of whom will put up a stiff resistance against any conventional foreign force. Therefore, no invading force can just have an easy walk over in Pakistan.
A direct Military intervention has to be completely ruled out. That leaves the option of strengthening of the present government in Pakistan, backing another Army General or ensuring the early election and setting up of a strong democratic government. The last of the three options in my view is the best in the present situation. However, it is the most difficult task both for the international community and the democratic forces within Pakistan to achieve this objective.
Looking from the Indian point of view, we should expect influx of refugees in the event of any major political upheaval across the border. Its intensity will depend upon the speed with which the current take over of the districts by the pro Taliban fundamentalists spread across the country. At present, it is confined in some pockets along the Western border of Pakistan with Afghanistan. If this situation is allowed to continue, it is only a matter of time before the fundamentalists taking over other areas in the country. As they progress, some presently dormant fundamentalist elements in other parts of the country and some fence sitters will join hand for material gains. This would lead to tension and increase in subversive activities across our Western borders.
From the present deliberations that the USA and EU are having with Pakistan, it appears they are more concerned with getting access and control of the nuclear assets of Pakistan rather than trying to find and help establish stable political and administrative machinery in that country, which can effectively face the destabilizing forces.
Mudiji and Shambhuji may like to give their enlighten views on the situation as they see it developing.
By FREDERICK W. KAGAN and MICHAEL OâHANLON. Which got published in the International Herald Tribune
The authors have painted a very grim picture of Pakistan in the event of its control going over to the fundamentalists. The problem with the United States has been that it always backs the wrong horse and there are many examples like Shah of Iran, Vietnam, and Cambodia etc. At present, it is already militarily engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and if we go by what is happening in these two countries the end to conflict and stabilization of these two countries are nowhere in sight. The European Union from whom the majority of the NATO force is drawn are not really interested to take in casualties and consequently they want to fight a war without getting killed. In the process the effectiveness of the NATO force as a striking force is questionable. This is the main reason why the Taliban has once again regained control in certain parts of Afghanistan.
In the article there is talk of direct US intervention in Pakistan to prevent the nuclear weapons falling in the hands of the terrorists, in the event of a total collapse of the present administrative set up in that country. The situation in Pakistan is indeed very complex. There is a strong undercurrent of nationalism in the minds of the decision makers as well as in the minds of the general population. In such a situation, there will be very strong reaction to any direct foreign intervention and in fact it will unite the country and all the fundamental forces will become united and more powerful. The Pakistan army is well equipped and trained by the United States since the six decades. With a population of 160 million, majority of whom will put up a stiff resistance against any conventional foreign force. Therefore, no invading force can just have an easy walk over in Pakistan.
A direct Military intervention has to be completely ruled out. That leaves the option of strengthening of the present government in Pakistan, backing another Army General or ensuring the early election and setting up of a strong democratic government. The last of the three options in my view is the best in the present situation. However, it is the most difficult task both for the international community and the democratic forces within Pakistan to achieve this objective.
Looking from the Indian point of view, we should expect influx of refugees in the event of any major political upheaval across the border. Its intensity will depend upon the speed with which the current take over of the districts by the pro Taliban fundamentalists spread across the country. At present, it is confined in some pockets along the Western border of Pakistan with Afghanistan. If this situation is allowed to continue, it is only a matter of time before the fundamentalists taking over other areas in the country. As they progress, some presently dormant fundamentalist elements in other parts of the country and some fence sitters will join hand for material gains. This would lead to tension and increase in subversive activities across our Western borders.
From the present deliberations that the USA and EU are having with Pakistan, it appears they are more concerned with getting access and control of the nuclear assets of Pakistan rather than trying to find and help establish stable political and administrative machinery in that country, which can effectively face the destabilizing forces.
Mudiji and Shambhuji may like to give their enlighten views on the situation as they see it developing.