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2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments-2
<b>UPA "afraid" of convening monsoon session: BJP</b>

Bhopal (PTI): BJP on Sunday said the Congress-led UPA government is "afraid" of convening the monsoon session of Parliament as it is not prepared to discuss important issues in the House.

"It is for the first time in the history of Parliament that monsoon session, which normally commences by July end, is yet to start. It seems the government is afraid of facing the opposition after it has won the confidence vote by using unfair means," BJP vice-president M Venkaiah Naidu said in a press conference here today.

"The inflation rate is above 12 per cent and it seems the government is unable to control it. Farmers are also facing a lot of problems and are forced to commit suicide," he said.

"There is a spurt in terrorist activities," he said referring to serial blasts in Jaipur, Bangalore and Ahmedabad.

These are the issues that should debated in Parliament, but it seems government is avoiding the session as it does not want to discuss these issues, he said.

Regarding the Amarnath land row, he said the party leaders and workers will take part in the three-day-long nation-wide agitation beginning tomorrow during which they would court arrest before the Raj Bhawan in all the states.

Manmohan natural choice as PM, too early for Rahul: Pawar
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> Pawar feels the Lok Sabha elections will be held at the scheduled time in March-April next year. He does not see the possibility of the UPA going for early polls by the year-end after a record foodgrains production and possible reining in of inflation in the next few months. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Answering a range of questions including the state of affairs in the national parties, especially the Congress, the Amarnath issue and the rise of the regional parties, the Union Agriculture Minister said the 15th Lok Sabha could turn out to be a short affair if either Congress or the BJP failed to win a minimum of 150 seats and form the next Government. “In the coming elections, it will be difficult for any party to get 160-170 seats.”<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The imminent entrance of Chiranjivi into Andhra Pradesh politics is casuing a lot of analysis.

From Deccan Chronicle, 13 Aug., 2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Kapu factor rules 90 seats

Hyderabad, Aug. 12: <b>With the launch of Chiranjeevi’s political party nearing, leaders from other parties are queuing up to get a berth in his party. Caste compulsions have made these leaders choose Chiranjeevi’s party as more than 90 Assembly constituencies in the state have good number of voters from the Kapu community and its sub-groups.</b>

<b>There are various sub-castes within the Kapus like Telaga, Balija, Kapu, Munnuru Kapu, Ontari, etc. Kapu community dominates the political scene in coastal Andhra and Telangana areas.</b> The TD leader from Kadapa, Mr C. Ramachandraiah said that he was under great pressure from his electorate, majority of whom belong to Balija community, a dominant Kapu sub-caste. Kurnool TD leader Bhuma Nagi Reddy and his wife Shoba quit the TD to get re-elected from Allagadda and Nandyal constituencies. These areas are known for their large Balija population. <b>Coastal districts of East and West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur and Prakasam have about 100 seats in the Assembly. The Kapus and sub-groups decide the winner in over 35 segments.</b>

In north coastal region, Thoorpu Kapu, another sub-group dominates the scene. Vizianagaram, Srikakulam and Visakapatnam districts are under the influence of this sub-group.  From Nellore to Rayalaseema, it is Balija and Ontari caste which influence the result in many seats. There are over 24 seats in Chittoor, Kurnool and Kadapa districts where these castes can swing the result.

<b>Coastal districts are already witnessing a major caste polarisation with all the Kapu and its sub-groups coming closer to support the proposed Chiranjeevi party. This is forcing the leaders belonging to the same community to quit their party and join the actor’s party to survive. BJP party will be wiped out of Coastal Andhra, once the film star party came into existence as all the prominent leaders already moving close with the new party.</b> Pitapuram MLA Mr Dorababu, Musheerabad former MLA K Lakshman are getting ready to join the Chiru party.

"How can we continue in another party when our own leader fighting to win the power. Our local people would not allow this and we don’t want to go against wind" said a former MLA who recently said good bye to TD party. <b>TD will be worst hit in coastal region as many leaders who have served the party for more than 20 years are now moving to film star camp.</b> Starting from Kotagiri Vidhyadara Rao to recent Jyothula Nehru, TD has suffered heavily in the coastal region.

Party shocked with senior leaders C Ramachandraiah, Bhuma Nagireddy and his wife Shoba quit for the Chiranjeevi party. <b>Congress also experienced the jolt in the form of Narsapuram MP Mr Hariram Jogaiah, who already acting like spokesperson of the proposed party.</b>


Are Kapus the native peoples of Andhra Pradesh region? Has to be as seen from their wide distribution in all regions- Coastal, Telangana and parts of Rayalseema. Is this time for their emergence from dhimmitude?
<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Aug 12 2008, 02:39 PM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Aug 12 2008, 02:39 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->The imminent entrance of Chiranjivi into Andhra Pradesh politics is casuing a lot of analysis.


Are Kapus the native peoples of Andhra Pradesh region? Has to be as seen from their wide distribution in all regions- Coastal, Telangana and parts of Rayalseema. Is this time for their emergence from dhimmitude?

This is worst thing that can happen to his party as it will be exclusively seen as Kapu Naidu party and they are less likely to attract voters belonging to other castes. This is actually good news for both Congress and TDP as they are not necessarily one-caste parties. With recent BSP joining it as ally, TDP hit lottery as TDP has had since beginning difficulty in attracting sizable SCs.

Also note that Kapu is not a caste. Kapus in Rayalaseema/Nellore mean Reddys. Current apparent unity of Kapu Naidu castes across AP are recent phenomenon and politically-driven without any historical relations. Balijas are more closely related to their related castes in Tamilnadu and Karnataka than say to Kapus in Telegana.
<!--emo&<_<--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /><!--endemo--> As far as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are concerned, the major gainers will be Ms Mayawati and the BSP, Mr Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) - they can also combine after elections in the UNPA. The ground reality is that if the Congress and BJP maintain their 'seats' then the UPA/NDA, depending on actual numbers, will be viable and the UNPA/Independents will float towards either group.
The four Assembly elections due this year -- in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh -- in November will be hard fought on all sides. The BSP is likely to cause extensive damage to the Congress in many Assembly constituencies in these States. But while the BJP is poised for an easy victory in Delhi and will put up a strong fight in Rajasthan, the Congress should win in the other two States.
Anti-incumbency will be a major issue as will be inflation, but other factors will also influence voter decisions and since victory or defeat is often determined by two to three per cent vote swings, it would be difficult to forecast events at this stage where the contest is between two major parties in States like Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, etc.

Deccan Chronicle, 15 Oct., 2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->YSR sets up candidates pool

Hyderabad, Oct. 13: A think-tank led by the Chief Minister, Dr Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, and longtime friend, Dr K.V. P. Ramachandra Rao, is applying a new formula to select Congress candidates for the upcoming polls. The core group is doing some intelligent guesswork on the likely candidates which rival parties are going to field on a particular constituency and is drawing up a list of probable candidates who can take them on.

“We cannot decide any particular candidate right now, and will have to wait and see what kinds of alliances we will be facing,” said a senior Congress leader. “We are now preparing a list of probable candidates and we will choose one based on the candidate put up by the rival combine.” The Congress is expecting triangular fights with the Telugu Desam and Praja Rajyam in the coastal and Rayalaseema regions. Telangana presents a more complicated picture with the presence of the TRS and the NTPP.

In almost 40 constituencies where the Kapu community has an electoral advantage, Praja Rajyam candidates will have an advantage. For these areas, the Congress core group will consider prominent OBC candidates.  It is also applying the formula for constituencies presently being held by non-Congress parties, and is looking out for ‘migrants’ in constituencies such as Nerella, Sircilla, and Dommat in Karimnagar district, where it has failed to groom good candidates in four years.

Similar exercises are also being taken up for other constituencies by the core group, in which the Pradesh Congress Committee chief, Mr D. Srinivas, the government chief whip, Mr N. Kirankumar Reddy, and the government financial advisor, Mr D.A. Somayajulu, are also members.  This group will evaluate the surveys conducted by three agencies and also go through the prospects of Congress functionaries .

“We are not finalising or shortlisting names as of now,” said Mr Kiran Kumar Reddy. “It is only a review of the situation.” Dr Ramachandra Rao told this correspondent that the Chief Minister did not have any undue interest in selecting a particular candidate. “All he wants is for the party to come back to power,” he said. The Chief Minister had engaged three private agencies, the staff of a regional newspaper as well as a television channel, to conduct surveys to know the thinking of the populace and the winning chances of MLAs.

<b>The core group is dividing its tentative list into three categories</b>, the first being those MLAs who would win if re-nominated.  Some 60 out of 185 MLAs come in this category. Under the second category are those MLAs who will be good candidates but will find the going tough. Around 40 MLAs fall in this category. The third category consists of MLAs who would be rejected re-nomination since it is sure that they would bite the dust.

<b>There are also around 40 MLAs who would be denied tickets but whose support is necessary to get new candidates elected.  The delimitation of the Assembly constituencies will also force the leadership to replace candidates in 45 assembly segments.</b>

Just ahead of the next general elections to the Parliament , several important developments have taken place in the Indian political scene and these will play a role in the outcome of the poll results.

The world economic turmoil will no doubt have an impact on our economy in the next few months. No doubt, so far we have not been as badly hit as many other economies, but the fact remains that India will not remain totally isolated from the developments overseas.

The failure of the small and regional political parties so far to forge a third front will eventually lead to a situation when some of these political parties will join one or the other existing formation. In the process both the NDA and UPA will gain in strength. In such a situation the only group that will remain at a loss will be the Left parties, provided they do not forget the nuclear deal and come back to the old fold.

The emergence of Bal Thakrey as a political force in Maharastra and the recent bashing up and attack on the north Indians in that State will also have its impact on the future line up of political parties. The joint delegation of Railway Minister and Bihar Chief Minister along with the Minister for Steel to the Prime Minister on this issue is a significant political development as far as north Indian politics is concerned. Similarly , the increasing number of attacks on the minority community in Orissa and Karnataka, both of which have BJP in the seat of power partially and fully respectively ,will play a role on the poll prospect of the BJP.
Down south the emergence of a new political outfit in AP and the future policy of DMK minus Shri Maran are other developments which will have a direct bearing on the poll results.
yeah... the series of bomb explosions in different parts of the country and indifference of UPA doesn't matter at all.
@ravish<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The world economic turmoil will no doubt have an impact on our economy in the next few months<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
last week, you wrote, no effect because genius are running Indian Government. Wow !!! what happened ? Sunrise from west.

Till hindus are dying and killed by Indian Muslims, that should not effect UPA performance. Inflation is so high that will not effect. Raj Thackrey will have no effect as he is supported by Queen. rest everything will effect BJP.
The Congress on its own will be a non starter.It may survive as a medium range partner of the present alliance.Mudiji, we shall resume the discussion once the results of the next general election are out.
<!--QuoteBegin-ravish+Oct 29 2008, 12:03 AM-->QUOTE(ravish @ Oct 29 2008, 12:03 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->We shall resume the discussion once the results of the next general election are out.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Discuss? You will disappear when tide turns agaist you. <!--emo&Tongue--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tongue.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Shamu, I will be there u need not worry on that.
Chiru open to joining BJP
He doesnt have much choice than that. Atleast he realized.
keeping his options open...

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Bardhan discusses poll tie-up with Chiru's PRP
Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Hyderabad: Communist Party of India national secretary A B Bardhan called on Praja Rajyam Party chief Chiranjeevi at the latter's residence here today to discuss the prospects of a tie-up between the two parties.

Its assistant secretary and MP Suravaram Sudhakar Reddy and party state secretary K Narayana were present on behalf of the CPI, while the Praja Rajyam delegation comprised Chiranjeevi's brother-in-law Allu Aravind, former minister K Vidyadher Rao and former MP C Ramachandraiah.

Bardhan reportedly requested the Praja Rajyam Party to support the third front against the Congress and the BJP at the Centre. Chiranjeevi, however, remained non-committal over the issue, informed sources said.

The CPI has been desperately seeking to align with the actor-turned-politician's party rather than with the TDP with the hope of bargaining for more number of seats to contest the elections and also benefit from the Chiranjeevi's charisma.

The CPI has firmed up its alliance with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti even as the other major Left partner CPI (M) hasn't yet decided on its course of action.

Interestingly, Bardhan will also be attending a breakfast being hosted by Telugu Desam Party president N Chandrababu Naidu. Bardhan shares a good rapport with Naidu and TDP's support becomes vital for the Left at the national-level to fulfil its objective of fighting both the Congress and the BJP.

TDP sources said TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao too has been invited for the breakfast at Naidu's residence and outcome of their deliberations is keenly awaited.  http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.as...umentid=1688777<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Andhra-experts, will he have any impact at all or influence just be limited to some areas?
<!--QuoteBegin-Bodhi+Nov 4 2008, 06:26 PM-->QUOTE(Bodhi @ Nov 4 2008, 06:26 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->...
Andhra-experts, will he have any impact at all or influence just be limited to some areas?

In Eenadu, a Telugu newspaper, he said there is no tie up with BJP. Although he has influence throughout AP as he is popular actor, he is more like spoiler - i.e if Congress wins again we can say he spoiled TDP chances, vice versa.

TDP with tie up with BJP has best chance of winning as rest of sporting themselves as secular parties - the secular word doesn't work in AP politics. TDP needs to seize the obama-like moment as people are fed up with Congress and economy is going down.

Anyway, TDP brings out NTR's son, another popular actor, in to active politics as an answer.

In India the next general elections are to be held in early 2009.It is time to look back how the country has performed in the last five years. What have been the achievements and what have been our failures. For some of these developments the coalition that is in Power can be held responsible, while some of the developments are due to reasons beyond the control of the Government or the establishment.
Let us analyze some of the important developments. The most important has been the technological and economic advancement. There has been increased demand of Indian technological skill abroad. The demand for Indian made goods and services have also seen much increase. Our scientists have also met with success in exploring the outer space and in perfecting the Missile technology.
There has been reduction in the number of people living below the poverty line. There has been improvement in rural health and education as well as in communication and transport. However, the problems in these fields are so vast that the development is not visible in the desired level. Malnutrition, ignorance, poverty and disease are still very widespread within the 200 million strong weaker section of the Indian population. However, it will be incorrect to say that there has been no substantial improvement in these areas problematic areas.
There has been opening up of new industries and also new service oriented jobs which have created many job opportunities. Small and medium private enterprises have also increased in number and the economic growth in the last few years have been quite impressive by Indian standard.

In the security aspect the period has seen unprecedented amount of terrorist attacks in different parts of the country. In addition the Naxalites have also made substantial inroads in different parts of West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The use of firearms have also increased substantially both for political crimes and normal crimes. There has been increased number of murders and kidnappings for randsom. Thus the law and order situation in some parts of the country is far from satisfactory.
On the external front, peace has prevailed on our borders. However, there has been no headway towards a permanent and lasting settlement of all our outstanding problems with China and Pakistan. Cross border terrorism has come down but it has not decreased the terrorist activites within the territory of India. In fact, the terrorists have been carrying out operations with impunity anywhere in India. The most disturbing part is that a few of our citizens belonging to the minority community have been brainwashed by these foreign elements and have become their collaborators. Another disturbing factor is the possible emergence of Hindu terrorist groups as a direct reaction to the activities of the Islamic terrorists.
The separatist movement in the North East has remained by and large dormant but has not died out. On the other hand,
Then comes the role of the political parties and the various political formations. The oldest of them is the Indian National Congress. It is no longer a formidable force in the North Indian States and its existence is mostly dependent on its alliance with regional outfits. The next political party in importance is the BJP. It has tremendous potential as a political party but has a leadership crisis within and there is increasing signs of infighting within the organization. The rest of the political parties are mostly small regional formation. They will be the one who will play a decisive role in the formation of the next government at the Centre.
Ravish, let's the hindu terror bogeyman in another thread and stick to poll prospects. I can see a need for UPA to create a bogeyman now to cover their security failures in past 5 years.

On economy, you mention:
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Let us analyze some of the important developments. The most important has been the technological and economic advancement. There has been increased demand of Indian technological skill abroad. The demand for Indian made goods and services have also seen much increase. Our scientists have also met with success in exploring the outer space and in perfecting the Missile technology.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Your comments lead me to believe that somehow in 2004 when UPA walked in, there was a sudden spike in "technological and economic advancement" and "increased demand of Indian technological skill abroad". Is this what you are implying? If so, it means either (A) Indians waited for UPA to walk in before unleashing their full technological and economic potential or (B) non-UPA govts suppressed such growth. Either one doesn't make sense.

If you know some facts, figures and numbers post it, so we compare or contrast the economic development in past 4 years. We have thread on this very forum with about 100 posts on this subject, which you might have overlooked, or we might have been overlooking something all these days.

I am not attributing India's technological and scientific development to UPA. In a democratic system, Governments come and go but the Nation moves on. The present success and the failures are the Nations success and failure. 5 years is too short a time for any political leader to change the destiny of the Nation. India has so far moved on its own and will continue to do so in the future.Yes for the sake of politicdal argumkents, we may brand a particular political party or leader to be good or bad, but at the end all Indian politicians will fall in the same category and all operate within the same overall limitations.

The security failures that have taken place, would have tken place even if some other political outfit had been in power.This is because the security aparatus remains the same and their fundamental character of operation do not undergo a change with the change of political masters.You will see in the next few months the lineup of the new political fomations for fighting the general election.Once it is over, there will be same mad rush for the prize portfolios as as happened in the past and election promises will be more or less forgotten in the day to day running of the Government.The rush of foreign tours durring the hot summer in Delhi will continue.

I agree that people (in India or anywhere else for that matter) go about doing their business in pursuit of wealth/happiness/prosperity irrespective of govt of the day. But there's a tendency of the commentators that shoot mouth off saying 'a govt x was good for economy' or 'govt y was bad for economy', especially close to elections.

Yes there will be specific instances of policies which do affect economic conditions favorably or adversely and this should be documented to strengthen any claims, else it's only speaking from the hat.

Same with security or crime. It's the response by the govt that we can discuss. There's a govt response which fosters peace and deters crime/terrorism, while there's another which emboldens the criminal and militant elements. What are we talking about?

Appropriate discussion in political threads on such matters would be only relevant if we start quantifying our claims.

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