2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

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<b>NDA to pick up parties if UNPA gets unbundled</b>

NEW DELHI: The Samajwadi Party’s tilt towards the Congress camp will lead to the collapse of the year-old United National Progressive Alliance. With a key member of this anti-Congress grouping changing its position, the remaining constituents are certain to chart their own course.

For the NDA, the recent turn of events provides an opportunity to build alliances with some UNPA members. The BJP, which believes that the general election is going to be an aggregate of state elections, could attempt to strike deals with some UNPA constituents.

Already, talks are underway for an alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD. Although the BJP’s state unit has expressed displeasure at this possible partnership, it is unlikely that the party’s central unit will bow to the state unit’s demands, especially given the dismal performance of the BJP in the three assembly constituencies of Adampur, Gohana and Indri, where the party failed to win a single seat.

Another possible partner that the BJP would be looking at is the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

Though the AGP was part of the NDA in 1999, it failed to win even a single seat. In 2004, no alliance materialised between the two as the state BJP unit convinced the central leadership that the Assam electorate was disillusioned with the Congress and the AGP. However, this time around, an alliance may be on the cards between the two. For that, however, the BJP will require to tone down its ‘Hindu agenda’ . With Assam’s nearly 31% being Muslims, the AGP will not want to risk aligning with BJP if the latter does not soften its ‘Hindu agenda’.

It’s a risk that may consolidate the ‘Muslim vote’ in favour of the Congress or the Assam United Democratic Front — a conglomerate of 20 religious and linguistic minorities led by state president of Jamiat Ulema-E Hind, Maulana Badaruddin Ajmal. Parties like AGP could take heart from the stand taken by the BJP on the Shiv Sena’s idea of ‘Hindu suicide squads’.

Another component of the UNPA which the BJP could seek to woo is the Jharkhand Vikas Manch, headed by Babulal Marandi. In Andhra Pradesh, though previously an NDA supporter, the TDP is unlikely to tie up or support the BJP for fear of losing support from Muslim voters. However, the entry of actor Chiranjeevi into the political scene with a new party could change calculations. There is speculation that the Left may desert the TDP for the film actor. However, it is too early to say which way things will go here.

As for AIADMK, its leader Ms J Jayalalithaa is unlikely to lay her cards on the table this early. The BJP is seen wooing Ms Jayalalithaa’s party, but a clearer picture is expected to emerge only closer to elections.