05-11-2008, 04:56 AM
Its raining opinion polls in Karnataka
Even before the furore over the blatantly biased opinion poll by the spin twins has barely settled ,we now have two more opinion polls published by other media houses.One, which predicts a outright BJP victory,conducted by the noted psephologist Narasimha Rao and another one by the Kerala based 'The Week' which forecasts a neck-to neck battle between Congress and BJP.
As a interested poll observer(setting aside my obvious bias) i think 'The Week' poll appears to be more accurate reflection of ground reality.I go with 'The Week' assessment despite the fact that Narasimha Rao is a seasoned practioner in the "market survey" industry .Unlike the Spin Twins,Rao is not afflicted with deep ideological biases though he has not exactly covered himself with glory all the time
The contrasting prediction made by three different polls underscore one point clearly.There is no clear winner at this point of time .Its a wide open race with 'undecided' voters still holding the key.It also demonstrates that runaway Congress victory predicted by spin twins is yet another instance of what Arun Jaitley so beautifully called âParticipatory Psephologyâ . Its increasingly clear that the ideological biases of pollsters and those who fund them play a key role in influencing outcomes of polls.By his own admission Yogendra had massaged the âraw dataâ of surveys to scale down the seat projections for a particular political party in Gujarat polls
I think there are two reasons why Yogendra repeatedely gets it wrong.First one is the inability to overcome bias that gets introduced when "Far Left meets Lohia" worldview of Yogendra combines the obvious political slant of CNN-IBN .I would have imagined that Gujarat experience would have chastened him and his media patrons a wee bit.The virulence with which they operated during the Gujarat polls might be missing this time around especially in the absence of a media created hate figure but the subtle mind games and spindoctoring continues unabated.
Two Yogendra, with his unhealthy obsession with caste based configuration, is bound to lose the plot sometimes.This was clearly evident in UP when all assumed caste based voting patterns were shattered by Mayawati magic. Yes caste is an important dimension of Indian electoral politics but not there are sometimes other several over overriding factors at play.For instance he has constructed a mythical,new social category called as âLower Social Blocâ which apparently is swinging the fortunes in favour of Congress
<b>
All said and done,i cannot rule the possibility of outright Congres win in Karanatka which might be because of one certainty in Indian electoral politics-Muslims not voting for BJP.i foresee religious minorties consolidating and resorting to enbloc tactical voting(nothing wrong in it as its a legitimate form of political expression given that BJP too is not attempting to reach out to them )</b>
In conclusion the Karnataka election appears to be heading for a photo finish as thing stand now.Either BJP or Congress could end up within striking distance of simple majority .My money is on Congress as it is better placed to pick up the JD-S votebank in South Karnataka and edge that it enjoys in Outer Bangalore region
PS-Need to add that my arm chair psephology 's success rate as been as good or as bad as CNN-IBN polls
Monday, August 21, 2006
âRedoubtableâ Psephologist -Yogendra Yadav
Yogendra Yadav-It's difficult to miss him if you are regular watcher of 'journalist-driven newschannel' run by 'Indiaâmost respected journalist'
Not long ago his appearances used to be limited strictly to election related amusements that are variously called as 'Opinion Polls', 'Exit Polls' and 'Post-election voting pattern analysis' .But these days he is omnipresent in the plush studios of CNN-IBN ,increasingly rivaling even the tele-exposure levels of BJP /Congress /Yechury who keep hopping from one studio to another studio ,where they need to babble ,battling incessant interruptions by haughty anchors.To given them their due, the politicos manage to hold their own even while being forced by anchors to summarize complex issue in 30 seconds ,given the impending commercial break
Yogendra Yadav is remarkably articulate, has an incisive understanding of the political landscape of the country and can be credited with demystifying the esocetric field called Psephology ,much to the benefit of television viewers.Also his model/methodology for the proposed OBC reservation definitely was an excellent effort.
Till recently i used to really believe that Yogendra is an independent social scientist with no axe to grind and no rabid ideological affliations that seem to increasingly afflict mediadom.However some bizzare findings of recent studies done by him , led to a lurking suspicion -whether he was using Psephology as a tool to further any particular ideological viewpoint or political groups espousing them.Given that he is working in tandem with some well-known 'Media Spindoctors' ,it was important to understand his motives.i hoped not.Some googling and my fears get confirmed .Yogendraâs ideological inclinations are pretty much clear.
And it now becomes fairly easy exercise to explain some outlandish findings of the much touted The Hindu -CNN-IBN State of the Nation Survey
I also recently found out that he is a chronicler of history too - writes history books for NCERT .Yogendra must definitely be a man of indefatigable intellectual stamina to take up such serious exercise like writing history books amidst his busy psephology and studio schedules.Given Yogendra has such profound ideological viewpoints,how can one wish away the biases(though thatâs another discussion)
For the uninitiated, Psephology in Indian context, simply put, is sometimes the fine art of using statistics to further ideological viewpoints or support political agendas that help in advancing the underlying ideology. At worst its barely concealed attempt to âmanipulate public opinion to manufacture realityâ.As Gaurav so brilliant puts it âSurveys much more than simple reporting also mold the popular opinion; they do not just inform but also manufacture the reality.Hence so much inaccuracy. These inaccuracies are not simple results of errors in sample size or methodology. These inaccuracies are deliberately introduced because of partisan biases and in zeal to wrest the initiative and frame the reference"
<b>
Also something on the the modus operandi of Yogendra Yadav .He usually acts in tandem one of the three usual suspects- high priest of âThe Mount Road Marxâ , Indiaâmost respected Journalist or 'Ruling Partyâs foremost Media Spindoctor'.</b>
Even before the furore over the blatantly biased opinion poll by the spin twins has barely settled ,we now have two more opinion polls published by other media houses.One, which predicts a outright BJP victory,conducted by the noted psephologist Narasimha Rao and another one by the Kerala based 'The Week' which forecasts a neck-to neck battle between Congress and BJP.
As a interested poll observer(setting aside my obvious bias) i think 'The Week' poll appears to be more accurate reflection of ground reality.I go with 'The Week' assessment despite the fact that Narasimha Rao is a seasoned practioner in the "market survey" industry .Unlike the Spin Twins,Rao is not afflicted with deep ideological biases though he has not exactly covered himself with glory all the time
The contrasting prediction made by three different polls underscore one point clearly.There is no clear winner at this point of time .Its a wide open race with 'undecided' voters still holding the key.It also demonstrates that runaway Congress victory predicted by spin twins is yet another instance of what Arun Jaitley so beautifully called âParticipatory Psephologyâ . Its increasingly clear that the ideological biases of pollsters and those who fund them play a key role in influencing outcomes of polls.By his own admission Yogendra had massaged the âraw dataâ of surveys to scale down the seat projections for a particular political party in Gujarat polls
I think there are two reasons why Yogendra repeatedely gets it wrong.First one is the inability to overcome bias that gets introduced when "Far Left meets Lohia" worldview of Yogendra combines the obvious political slant of CNN-IBN .I would have imagined that Gujarat experience would have chastened him and his media patrons a wee bit.The virulence with which they operated during the Gujarat polls might be missing this time around especially in the absence of a media created hate figure but the subtle mind games and spindoctoring continues unabated.
Two Yogendra, with his unhealthy obsession with caste based configuration, is bound to lose the plot sometimes.This was clearly evident in UP when all assumed caste based voting patterns were shattered by Mayawati magic. Yes caste is an important dimension of Indian electoral politics but not there are sometimes other several over overriding factors at play.For instance he has constructed a mythical,new social category called as âLower Social Blocâ which apparently is swinging the fortunes in favour of Congress
<b>
All said and done,i cannot rule the possibility of outright Congres win in Karanatka which might be because of one certainty in Indian electoral politics-Muslims not voting for BJP.i foresee religious minorties consolidating and resorting to enbloc tactical voting(nothing wrong in it as its a legitimate form of political expression given that BJP too is not attempting to reach out to them )</b>
In conclusion the Karnataka election appears to be heading for a photo finish as thing stand now.Either BJP or Congress could end up within striking distance of simple majority .My money is on Congress as it is better placed to pick up the JD-S votebank in South Karnataka and edge that it enjoys in Outer Bangalore region
PS-Need to add that my arm chair psephology 's success rate as been as good or as bad as CNN-IBN polls
Monday, August 21, 2006
âRedoubtableâ Psephologist -Yogendra Yadav
Yogendra Yadav-It's difficult to miss him if you are regular watcher of 'journalist-driven newschannel' run by 'Indiaâmost respected journalist'
Not long ago his appearances used to be limited strictly to election related amusements that are variously called as 'Opinion Polls', 'Exit Polls' and 'Post-election voting pattern analysis' .But these days he is omnipresent in the plush studios of CNN-IBN ,increasingly rivaling even the tele-exposure levels of BJP /Congress /Yechury who keep hopping from one studio to another studio ,where they need to babble ,battling incessant interruptions by haughty anchors.To given them their due, the politicos manage to hold their own even while being forced by anchors to summarize complex issue in 30 seconds ,given the impending commercial break
Yogendra Yadav is remarkably articulate, has an incisive understanding of the political landscape of the country and can be credited with demystifying the esocetric field called Psephology ,much to the benefit of television viewers.Also his model/methodology for the proposed OBC reservation definitely was an excellent effort.
Till recently i used to really believe that Yogendra is an independent social scientist with no axe to grind and no rabid ideological affliations that seem to increasingly afflict mediadom.However some bizzare findings of recent studies done by him , led to a lurking suspicion -whether he was using Psephology as a tool to further any particular ideological viewpoint or political groups espousing them.Given that he is working in tandem with some well-known 'Media Spindoctors' ,it was important to understand his motives.i hoped not.Some googling and my fears get confirmed .Yogendraâs ideological inclinations are pretty much clear.
And it now becomes fairly easy exercise to explain some outlandish findings of the much touted The Hindu -CNN-IBN State of the Nation Survey
I also recently found out that he is a chronicler of history too - writes history books for NCERT .Yogendra must definitely be a man of indefatigable intellectual stamina to take up such serious exercise like writing history books amidst his busy psephology and studio schedules.Given Yogendra has such profound ideological viewpoints,how can one wish away the biases(though thatâs another discussion)
For the uninitiated, Psephology in Indian context, simply put, is sometimes the fine art of using statistics to further ideological viewpoints or support political agendas that help in advancing the underlying ideology. At worst its barely concealed attempt to âmanipulate public opinion to manufacture realityâ.As Gaurav so brilliant puts it âSurveys much more than simple reporting also mold the popular opinion; they do not just inform but also manufacture the reality.Hence so much inaccuracy. These inaccuracies are not simple results of errors in sample size or methodology. These inaccuracies are deliberately introduced because of partisan biases and in zeal to wrest the initiative and frame the reference"
<b>
Also something on the the modus operandi of Yogendra Yadav .He usually acts in tandem one of the three usual suspects- high priest of âThe Mount Road Marxâ , Indiaâmost respected Journalist or 'Ruling Partyâs foremost Media Spindoctor'.</b>