05-11-2008, 04:25 AM
Karnataka Polls Phase 1 - Predictions
The NDTV reports
An estimated 60 per cent of the nearly 1.73 crore voters on Saturday exercised their franchise in the crucial first phase of Assembly elections in 89 of the 224 constituencies of Karnataka according to Deputy Chief Election Commissioner R Bhattacharya. He said 64 per cent voters exercised their franchise in rural areas while 50 per cent turnout was recorded in urban centres. Around 7,700 central officials monitored the polling held in 18,598 stations across 11 districts on Saturday.
While we await the exit polls from the usual suspects NDTV, CNN-IBN etc Offstumped has come up with extensive analysis all produced by an avid reader with a good knowledge of local factors. The constituency wise predictions to follow have all been produced by this avid reader.
<b>
This election assumes significance for some very important reasons.
To start with it is the first election that is being held after the delimitation of constituencies. Ideally it is expected to be representative of the changing demographics in terms of urban to rural proportion of people. The delimitation offers the chance for the urban voter to make his vote count more. Next this election is supposed to be a trend setter for the upcoming state elections in 2008 and the grand finale next year. The campaigns have so far lacked a high pitch seen usually in elections in India. Apart from a few public speeches by Modi and Advani, there has been no single leader in Karnataka who has the voice of the kannadigas. So as such there is no wave for any single party. History has not been very unfair to Karnataka in giving a decisive winner. Almost all elections after 1983 held in Karnataka have had a single party emerging victorious. </b>
Summary of Predictions-Phase 1: 89 seats
BJP assured-20
Congress assured-18
JD(S) assured-13
BSP assured-1
RPI assured-1
KCVP assured-1
Unpredictable (seats with no trend, flip flopping or no incumbents)-14
Tossup (seats fought on close margins either between two parties or 3 way contests on close margins) - 12
Unknown seats (Of all the new constituencies carved out, some of the seats could not be analysed) - 9
Detailed predictions seat by seat
Tumkur District
128. Chiknayakanhalli GEN: Traditionally high turnouts, This seat is a direct fight between JD(U) and JD(S), if the trend of voting out the incumbent were to continue, the JD(S) might scrape through here.
129. Tiptur GEN: Consistent 70% + voter turnouts, A BJP MLA defected to JD(S) ten years back, lost once on a close margin and then won as a JD(S) candidate, is likely to win again, so this one is for JD(S)
130. Turuvekere GEN: No consistent trend here, all parties had close vote shares last time, anybodyâs guess, Unpredictable
131. Kunigal GEN: Traditional congress seat, last time went to JD(S), BJP has been improving its vote share, but still is largely unpredictable
132. Tumkur City GEN: Safe BJP seat, same candidate Shivanna, BJP will retain this seat
133. Tumkur Rural GEN: Newly carved out seat, BSP is fielding a minority candidate, this is likely a contest between BJP and Congress, unpredictable
134. Koratagere SC: This has been converted from a GEN seat to an SC seat and the previous candidates are no more in the fray, would call that unpredictable
135. Gubbi GEN: Independent MLA is now contesting under a JD(S) ticket, likely to win again under the JD(S).
136. Sira GEN: Traditionally the incumbent gets voted out, likely to go back to congress
137. Pavagada SC: Congress is fielding a new candidate and JD(S) the incumbent, usually the incumbent here gets voted out, but congress changed candidate, so it can go either way, unpredictable
138. Madhugiri GEN: Congress stronghoild, likely to stay congress
Chikkaballapur District
139. Gauribidanur GEN: A congress seat for quite some time and likely to remain congress as other parties donât have much presence in this area.
140. Bagepalli GEN: This seat will be fiercely contested between the congress and the CPM on close margins, tossup
141. Chikkaballapur GEN: Traditional congress seat, likely to stay congress
142. Sidlagatta GEN: JD(S) replaced its incumbent MLA in what is a traditional congress seat, likely to go back to congress
143. Chintamani GEN: The BJP and congress are likely to fight this seat on close margins, likely tossup
Kolar District
144. Srinivaspur GEN: Congress has a strong candidate, will remain congress seat.
145. Mulbagal SC: General seat converted to SC, all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
146. Kolar Gold Field SC: Will stay with RPI, other parties donât have much presence here
147. Bangarapet SC: New constituency
148. Kolar GEN: Congress stronghold, will stay congress
149. Malur GEN: The BJP candidate is the incumbent MLA and is very strong here, BJP will retain this.
Bangalore District
150. Yelhanka GEN: BJP has an increasing presence in this area, but will still take an extra to unseat the congress candidate from their stronghold, likely to be tossup
151. KR Pura GEN: New constituency, BJP is fielding a real estate candidate and this is the only party in this area having a presence, this is likely to be BJP
152. Byatarayanapura GEN: New Constituency
153. Yesvanthapura GEN: New Constituency, BJP is fielding Shobha, probably the most controversial candidate in this election
154. Rajarajeshwarinagar GEN: New Constituency, the BJP has a good candidate here, likely to be BJP here
155. Dasarahalli GEN: New Constituency
156. Mahalakshmi Layout GEN: New Constituency
157. Malleshwaram GEN: The BJP has increasing support in this area, close to IISC area likely to fought on close margins with the INC. Tossup
158. Hebbal GEN: Katta Subramanya Naidu, who has represented Shivajinagar thrice for BJP , is now moving to the adjacent Hebbal constituency. This should be easier for him since it has a much lesser proportion of minorities compared to Shivajinagar. This will be BJP
159. Pulakeshinagar SC: This is a Tamil dominated area, not much chance for the BJP or the JD(S), this is a sure congress seat.
160. Sarvagnanagar GEN: This is a Tamil dominated area, not much chance for the BJP or the JD(S), this is a sure congress seat.
161. C.V Raman Nagar SC: BJP is fielding a local candidate Raghu, who has considerable fans in the area, Raghu is from CV Raman Nagar, won Shanti Nagar and CV Raman Nagar BMC last time, should have it easy. This is a BJP seat
162. Shivajinagar GEN: Traditional BJP seat, BJP has changed the candidate, but likely to stay BJP
163. Shantinagar GEN: Raghu who won for BJP here last time is now contesting from CV Raman Nagar, so BJP has a new candidate, but likely to stay BJP
164. Gandhinagar GEN: Though a traditional congress seat, PC Mohan of BJP is expected to give a good fight to Dinesh of congress, but congress will all probability retain this.
165. Rajajinagar GEN: Congress would have had a chance with its incumbent, but by changing him and putting a new candidate, they lost it. Suresh kumar of BJP will win this. It was a BJP seat before, so BJP will get this back
166. Govindraj Nagar GEN: This is a sure congress seat, V Somanna is a strong candidate
167. Vijay Nagar GEN: New constituency
168. Chamrajpet GEN: This is a minority dominated area, both congress and JD(S) are fielding Muslim candidates, so it will be fought between them, most likely JD(S) will win.
169. Chickpet GEN: Strong BJP seat, will stay BJP
170. Basavangudi GEN: This will be an interesting seat, both BJP and congress have won in the past, with Modi doing some high pitched campaign here it should be a close battle, likely tossup
171. Padmanabha Nagar GEN: A new constituency carved out of the erstwhile Uttarahalli area, Ashok of BJP is a formidable candidate, so this will be BJP
172. BTM Layout GEN: IT area, people from all over the state and country, very difficult to predict could be anybody, so unpredictable
173. Jayanagar GEN: As such Vijay Kumar of BJP can unseat Ramalinga Reddy in this congress stronghold, but it will be closely fought, so tossup.
174. Mahadevapura SC: BJP is the only party in this area which has a presence, their candidate is a civil engineer cum real estate guy, this will be BJP
175. Bommanahalli GEN: Semi rural area, lots of migrants, though not very clear congress will likely claim this seat.
176. Bangalore South GEN: Brahmin dominated area, Ananth kumar controls this area and chooses candidates for the BJP here, will be BJP
177. Anekal SC: Has been a BJP stronghold, likely to remain so.
Bangalore Rural District
178. Hosakote GEN: Last time JD(S) candidate lost to the congress candidate by less than 1% margin and now this JD(S) guy has defected to the BJP. Likely tossup between congress and BJP
179. Devanahalli SC: This constituency has consistently voted out incumbent and in fact re-elected past MLAâs, going by past trends, this will go to the congress this time.
180. Doddaballapur GEN: Was a JD(S) seat which went to congress last time, but both JD(S) and congress have consistent voting percentages here and so this is likely to be unpredictable
181. Neelamangala SC: Though this has been a congress seat for the last two terms, their vote share has slipped considerably while BJP and JD(S) have been getting some positive response here, this will be a tossup between the three.
Ramnagar District
182. Magadi GEN: The JD(S) has a good candidate who has a strong support in this area, so will be JD(S)
183. Ramanagaram GEN: HD Kumaraswamy for JD(S), will go to JD(S)
184. Kanakapura GEN: Has been with JD or JD(S) always, they have changed candidate this time, but likely to be JD(S)
185. Channapatna GEN: Congress has a strong candidate, will be congress
Mandya District
186. Malavalli SC: JD(S) is string here, will stay with JD(S)
187. Maddur GEN: No trend here, this is an unpredictable seat
188. Melukote GEN: New constituency
189. Mandya GEN: M Srinivas of the JD(S) is the current MLA and a strong candidate, will win there so this is JD(S)
190. Srirangapatna GEN: No trend here and candidates win with very low vote shares, so unpredictable
191. Nagamangala GEN: JD(S) stronghold, will stay JD(S)
192. Krishnarajpet GEN: Consistently votes out the incumbent, and again has elected previous MLAâs, so this will likely go back to the congress this time.
193. Shravanabelagola GEN: New Constituency
194. Arsikere GEN: has become a BJP stronghold now though they have changed candidates, will be likely BJP
195. Belur GEN: Has been a three way split in the last 2 elections, will be a tossup between the three (congress, BJP and JD(S))
196. Hassan GEN: Here JD(S) has a strong candidate, and so JD(S) will hold this seat again.
197. Holenarasipur GEN: Revanna for JD(S), this will be JD(S)
198. Arkalgud GEN: Fought on close margin last time, likely to be tossup between JD(S) and Congress
199. Sakleshpur SC: General seat converted to SC, all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
Kodagu District
208. Madikere GEN: BJP won this last time and in the past, high pitched campaign by BJP top brass here, likely to be BJP
209. Virajpet GEN: BJP won this last time and in the past, high pitched campaign by BJP top brass here, likely to be BJP
Mysore District
210. Periyapatna GEN: Has been a three way split in the last 2 elections, will be a tossup between the three (congress, BJP and JD(S))
211. Krishnarajanagara GEN: This will be a tossup between Congress and JD(S) fought on close margins.
212. Hunsur GEN: This will go to BJP, mainly on account of GT Devegowda who won last time on a JD(S) ticket, but has now joined the BJP
213. Heggadadevankote ST: Has been converted to an ST seat from an SC seat. General seat converted to SC, all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
214. Nanjangud SC: Consistently votes out the incumbent, and again has elected previous MLAâs, so this will likely go back to the congress this time.
215. Chamundeshwari GEN: all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
216. Krishnaraja GEN: JD(S) has replaced the incumbent, but this a BJP strong area though JD(S) wonlast time, will likely be back with BJP.
217. Chamaraja GEN: BJP stronghold, will stay with BJP
218. Narsimharaja GEN: Congress has a minority candidate, but a strong one, will stay with congress.
219. Varuna GEN: New constituency
220. T. Narsipur SC: No trend here, totally unpredictable and won with vote share in the 30âs.
Chamarajanagar District
221. Hanur GEN: has been voting out incumbent parties of late, congress will likely get this back.
222. Kollegal SC: This might BSPâs first seat in Karnataka, likely BSP
223. Chamarajanagar GEN: KCVP candidate looks quite strong here, so likely KCVP
224. Gundlupet GEN: Will stay with JD(S), this is a stronghold for them.