04-18-2008, 09:59 PM
X-Posted...
<!--QuoteBegin-"R Vaidya"+-->QUOTE("R Vaidya")<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->IMO there will be a huge sympathy wave or there must be something fundamentally wrong in the undercurrents of Kar society, which I believe aint true.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It is one thing to wish for an event and another to make that as forecast.
In K'taka there are 234 seats and in all four major groupings [ and in most five] will fight it out--Congress/BJP/JDS/BSP/SP and may be JDU in a few. Normally it is 55 to 60 percent voting. This imply if one party gets 18 to 20 percent voting then they can succed most of the times. Last elections more than fifty seats had around 1000 vote margins. JDS wants to have an alliance of Gowdas and Muslims and in nearly 100 contituencies they are nearly 20 percent. <b>If out of this hundred say in 30 to 35 they win then they will be again balancing force.</b> Communists are not as of now going full hog with JDS--communists even though miniscule can influence Muslim thinking after the Iraq/Iran/nuclear deal issues.
BJP also should not stress on Lingayat factor since other castes can gang up against them--In K'taka [ even in TN] one party should not be too much identified with one caste
Interesting times are ahead both at K'taka and at the Centre with Mayavathi playing similar balancing role. Incidentally Re-diff is the only paper which carried an article predicting Mayavathi getting more than 205 seats before last UP assembly elections. _- I am not particularly a fan of that portal--
rvaidya<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->