02-18-2008, 12:35 AM
This is Arun Nehru uvacha ( take it with a pinch of salt). He lost his midas touch in his analysis.
<b>Up in the air at the moment </b>
Arun Nehru
Politics rarely takes a vacation. No wonder both the Congress and the BJP are jostling for supremacy, keeping in mind the 2009 general election. The BJP is on the offensive and I must admit that I am amused by the 'loyal' media sources as they first circulate the speculation and then believe that Mr Narendra Modi is a threat to Mr LK Advani. The fact that Mr Modi's brand of politics -- integrity and performance -- is gaining momentum and cuts across 'secular' and 'non-secular' theories propounded by political interests for vote-bank politics, is a welcome sign. Hopefully, we will have more Chief Ministers capable of independent action and free of hidden power sources based on extra-constitutional factors.
The delay in the Karnataka election, which the Congress had a good chance of winning, and virtually clubbing it together with the elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, will suit the BJP. As things stand, the BJP stands to gain more than the Congress. Any further 'security' issues in the next few months and the constant talk about a soft approach to terror and terrorists may well beat the anti-incumbency wave in these BJP-ruled States to a great extent.
Mr Modi has his detractors, but nothing succeeds like success. The fact is, he can go to any part of the country and the people will love to hear his views. He will attract larger crowds in the future.
The BJP is clearly advancing and you may well find Mr Advani projecting the Gujarat example in the rest of the country. Any leader who is a genuine leader rarely acts against popular opinion within the party and the public. The decline of the BJP has been arrested and it has the better part of 2008 to prepare for the future.
Teamwork lacking in the past with dual power bases -- the RSS was also active -- is largely absent, and should be dealt with ruthlessly if the NDA is to gain credibility. Regional parties are observing political developments with interest and forces opposed to the Congress (the ADMK, TC, TDP, BJD, NC, SP, BSP) have the option of aligning with the NDA or the 'Third Front'. The Congress, as the single largest party, continues to have advantage, but the NDA and 'Third Front' are more than a threat to the party.
<b>Coalition politics is never easy, and because of anti-incumbency factors and the advancement of the regional parties in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh (the ADMK and the TDP), we can see a 50-seat swing in either direction. This can result in many a change in the immediate future, as it did for the Congress in 2004. </b>
The Congress, in theory, should gain from the anti-incumbency factor in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. But as things stand in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, the BJP (NDA) and the Left-SP ('Third Front') combinations have a larger set of options on possible alliances at the moment.
The Congress will make a fatal error if it relies on a 'loyal' media, sting operations, Government agencies and defections from the Opposition to ensure political success. 'High' growth and a 'friendly' Budget will help create a favourable atmosphere, but political success will be achieved by political acts and the projection of charismatic leaders in the States.
Assembly elections are due in the North-East, as also in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh -- with 100 Lok Sabha seats in these four States -- towards the end of 2008. I think the real action may well come from the fluid situation in Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) and Maharashtra (48 seats). There will be many political developments in the next nine months. One wonders if this may lead to a general election towards the end of 2008.
Uttar Pradesh is crucial. Ms Mayawati and the BSP are indulging in excesses with the Opposition and are initiating action against the SP, the BJP and the Congress. This is a serious matter as every vendetta invites retribution at some stage. The battle will still be between the BSP and the SP, but both the Congress and the BJP can also benefit if the BSP tirade against the Opposition continues in this manner.
Ms Mayawati is treating an electoral verdict for stability and good governance as a personal licence to indulge in excesses. In this, the SP will be a definite gainer. The Congress, with Mr Rahul Gandhi leading the charge, may also gain. As for the BJP, it still needs an organisational structure to gain from these acts.
The situation in Maharashtra is fluid. The fight between the MNS and the SP (both parties are on the decline in this State) reflects the reality. As the Shiv Sena, under Mr Uddhav Thackeray, consolidates its position, the Sena and the BJP may well improve their current tally in the Lok Sabha marginally. Therefore, the Congress and the NCP are under pressure.
Coming to out western neighbour, events in Pakistan seem to have disappeared from our media radar and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the electoral battle in that country have receded to the background. There are few doubts that we will have to deal with the General and the Army in the near future and I don't think anyone will object to this situation.
As for India, it will continue to face the problem of infiltration by terrorists. After a relatively calm winter, we can expect terrorist attempts by 'sleeper units' within the country. Internal security may well be the primary issue in an election year, as illegal immigration is being linked with the minority vote-bank in several States. Moreover, things in Assam show little improvement.
<b>Up in the air at the moment </b>
Arun Nehru
Politics rarely takes a vacation. No wonder both the Congress and the BJP are jostling for supremacy, keeping in mind the 2009 general election. The BJP is on the offensive and I must admit that I am amused by the 'loyal' media sources as they first circulate the speculation and then believe that Mr Narendra Modi is a threat to Mr LK Advani. The fact that Mr Modi's brand of politics -- integrity and performance -- is gaining momentum and cuts across 'secular' and 'non-secular' theories propounded by political interests for vote-bank politics, is a welcome sign. Hopefully, we will have more Chief Ministers capable of independent action and free of hidden power sources based on extra-constitutional factors.
The delay in the Karnataka election, which the Congress had a good chance of winning, and virtually clubbing it together with the elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, will suit the BJP. As things stand, the BJP stands to gain more than the Congress. Any further 'security' issues in the next few months and the constant talk about a soft approach to terror and terrorists may well beat the anti-incumbency wave in these BJP-ruled States to a great extent.
Mr Modi has his detractors, but nothing succeeds like success. The fact is, he can go to any part of the country and the people will love to hear his views. He will attract larger crowds in the future.
The BJP is clearly advancing and you may well find Mr Advani projecting the Gujarat example in the rest of the country. Any leader who is a genuine leader rarely acts against popular opinion within the party and the public. The decline of the BJP has been arrested and it has the better part of 2008 to prepare for the future.
Teamwork lacking in the past with dual power bases -- the RSS was also active -- is largely absent, and should be dealt with ruthlessly if the NDA is to gain credibility. Regional parties are observing political developments with interest and forces opposed to the Congress (the ADMK, TC, TDP, BJD, NC, SP, BSP) have the option of aligning with the NDA or the 'Third Front'. The Congress, as the single largest party, continues to have advantage, but the NDA and 'Third Front' are more than a threat to the party.
<b>Coalition politics is never easy, and because of anti-incumbency factors and the advancement of the regional parties in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh (the ADMK and the TDP), we can see a 50-seat swing in either direction. This can result in many a change in the immediate future, as it did for the Congress in 2004. </b>
The Congress, in theory, should gain from the anti-incumbency factor in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. But as things stand in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, the BJP (NDA) and the Left-SP ('Third Front') combinations have a larger set of options on possible alliances at the moment.
The Congress will make a fatal error if it relies on a 'loyal' media, sting operations, Government agencies and defections from the Opposition to ensure political success. 'High' growth and a 'friendly' Budget will help create a favourable atmosphere, but political success will be achieved by political acts and the projection of charismatic leaders in the States.
Assembly elections are due in the North-East, as also in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh -- with 100 Lok Sabha seats in these four States -- towards the end of 2008. I think the real action may well come from the fluid situation in Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) and Maharashtra (48 seats). There will be many political developments in the next nine months. One wonders if this may lead to a general election towards the end of 2008.
Uttar Pradesh is crucial. Ms Mayawati and the BSP are indulging in excesses with the Opposition and are initiating action against the SP, the BJP and the Congress. This is a serious matter as every vendetta invites retribution at some stage. The battle will still be between the BSP and the SP, but both the Congress and the BJP can also benefit if the BSP tirade against the Opposition continues in this manner.
Ms Mayawati is treating an electoral verdict for stability and good governance as a personal licence to indulge in excesses. In this, the SP will be a definite gainer. The Congress, with Mr Rahul Gandhi leading the charge, may also gain. As for the BJP, it still needs an organisational structure to gain from these acts.
The situation in Maharashtra is fluid. The fight between the MNS and the SP (both parties are on the decline in this State) reflects the reality. As the Shiv Sena, under Mr Uddhav Thackeray, consolidates its position, the Sena and the BJP may well improve their current tally in the Lok Sabha marginally. Therefore, the Congress and the NCP are under pressure.
Coming to out western neighbour, events in Pakistan seem to have disappeared from our media radar and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the electoral battle in that country have receded to the background. There are few doubts that we will have to deal with the General and the Army in the near future and I don't think anyone will object to this situation.
As for India, it will continue to face the problem of infiltration by terrorists. After a relatively calm winter, we can expect terrorist attempts by 'sleeper units' within the country. Internal security may well be the primary issue in an election year, as illegal immigration is being linked with the minority vote-bank in several States. Moreover, things in Assam show little improvement.