10-15-2007, 03:28 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Early poll will help Congress </b>
Pioneer.com
Arun Nehru
Political assessments given a few weeks ago had indicated that the next general election would take place in December 2007 or February 2008. The fact that the Congress and the CPI(M) are trading charges on the India-US nuclear deal does not surprise anyone. I think, in all this confusion, the two big casualties are the 'Third Front' and the Left parties, in terms of the former's formation and the latter's electoral fortunes.
<b>It is clear that the battle will be between the Congress, which will head the UPA, and the BJP, which will lead the NDA.</b> In all this, Ms Mayawati and the BSP will be dangerous floaters which can align with anyone -- the party can win more than 50 seats. The allies of the Congress and the BJP in both UPA and the NDA can travel in any direction, as numbers will determine the alliance which will finally govern India.
<b>My assessment is that the Congress will emerge as the single largest group with 180 to 190 seats, with a gain of 40 to 50 seats. The BJP will win between 80 and 90 seats, and will thus lose 40 to 50 seats.</b> As things stand, the current allies of the Congress -- the DMK, the RJD and the Left -- stand to lose between 40 and 50 seats. But all of the BJP's potential allies -- the ADMK, the TDP and the JD(U) -- stand to gain seats, and the numbers could well be between 25 and 30. The Left, with 40 to 45 seats, may get isolated unless it goes back to the Congress.
I think the role of BSP leader Mayawati will be decisive. She can travel in either direction and is not burdened by vote-bank issues. In the 2004 general election, the BSP fought 435 seats (the Congress contested 417 seats, while the BJP 364) and secured 5.33 per cent of the vote. In contrast, the CPI(M) got 5.66 per cent, while the CPI received 1.41 per cent.
Elections are never easy. However, as things stand, the Congress has the initial advantage. But things can change as the Assembly election in Gujarat is due in December this year. It will be interesting to see voter trends in the State, and I would not be surprised to see Chief Minister Narendra Modi sweeping the State election, and having a split verdict in the Lok Sabha poll. We may well see two separate verdicts for the State and Central Governments, as coalition confusion cannot continue in this manner.
I don't think elections will really surprise anyone as basically the needs of the future cannot be met by the politics of the past. The Left may have its own compulsions, but it avoids the reality of reforms and economic growth. It refuses to look at China, Russia and Vietnam, and instead revives the arguments of the Cold War. In a century devoted to global advances on trade and commerce, the Left is thinking of state and party-controlled politics. This is not working either in West Bengal or in Kerala.
There are sound arguments that the benefits of the current growth are not evenly distributed. Clearly, it is a part of governance to make this possible. But does any country in the world, or any political system, have a better alternative strategy? The fact is, the Left, despite all its political muscle and dedicated party cadre, will lose seats in Kerala and West Bengal, as it ignores the reality and the aspirations of the people by stalling economic growth. I have had the privilege of working closely with Mr Harkishen Singh Surjit and Mr Jyoti Basu. They were men of exceptional integrity and ability. I hope that they are well enough to exert influence. They, along with Mr Prakash Karat and Mr Sitaram Yechury, will have to salvage the situation, as the Left has much to lose.
The situation in West Bengal is deteriorating, as the Nandigram wound continues to fester. The death of Rizwanur Rehman, who married the daughter of high-profile Ashok Todi, is threatening to engulf the Left Front Government in the State. Every State can face similar situations, but these become issues when political credibility is low.
We are all looking at coalition structures for the future. We have had coalition structures now for close to two decades starting from our chaotic Government in 1989. And now I wonder whether the electorate is moving towards greater stability and a majority Government. This could become apparent in the next two elections. We are looking at a change in the outlook of voters, and I think the Congress and the BJP can gain because of this change.
The talks between the Congress and the Left will continue and I feel rather sad that the Left with a five per cent vote-bank is holding the Government to ransom on the nuclear issue. The spin-off of this will have an impact on the economy. We are poised for record growth, and have to sustain our efforts and legislate for the future. In this situation the attitude of the Left is not to our advantage. We are producing wealth for the first time by productivity; and, while we can argue on the method of distribution and greater allocations to the weaker sections, we cannot revert to the past and allow vested interests to control the economy. The Left should not isolate itself on the economic front. It should look at the Left parties in China, Russia and Vietnam and their policies on trade.
<b>My personal assessment is that the Congress will be losing a window of opportunity if it misses the February-March 2008 election, as anti-incumbency trends have not yet settled in fully in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. And these States can well determine the future of the next coalition. The Congress, if it reaches the target of 180-190 seats in the election, will have little difficulty in forming the Government, as all alliances are flexible. The Congress, after the initial confusion, has handled the Ram Setu issue well, and the father-son combination of Mr HD Deve Gowda and Mr HD Kumaraswamy in Karnataka has given an equal opportunity to the Congress and the BJP to gain an advantage.</b>
Elections are never easy to forecast, but I see greater stability in the future after elections are over in early 2008, and I see increased economic growth and productivity. I would be surprised if anyone in the market either here or abroad will have any disagreement on this.
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Pioneer.com
Arun Nehru
Political assessments given a few weeks ago had indicated that the next general election would take place in December 2007 or February 2008. The fact that the Congress and the CPI(M) are trading charges on the India-US nuclear deal does not surprise anyone. I think, in all this confusion, the two big casualties are the 'Third Front' and the Left parties, in terms of the former's formation and the latter's electoral fortunes.
<b>It is clear that the battle will be between the Congress, which will head the UPA, and the BJP, which will lead the NDA.</b> In all this, Ms Mayawati and the BSP will be dangerous floaters which can align with anyone -- the party can win more than 50 seats. The allies of the Congress and the BJP in both UPA and the NDA can travel in any direction, as numbers will determine the alliance which will finally govern India.
<b>My assessment is that the Congress will emerge as the single largest group with 180 to 190 seats, with a gain of 40 to 50 seats. The BJP will win between 80 and 90 seats, and will thus lose 40 to 50 seats.</b> As things stand, the current allies of the Congress -- the DMK, the RJD and the Left -- stand to lose between 40 and 50 seats. But all of the BJP's potential allies -- the ADMK, the TDP and the JD(U) -- stand to gain seats, and the numbers could well be between 25 and 30. The Left, with 40 to 45 seats, may get isolated unless it goes back to the Congress.
I think the role of BSP leader Mayawati will be decisive. She can travel in either direction and is not burdened by vote-bank issues. In the 2004 general election, the BSP fought 435 seats (the Congress contested 417 seats, while the BJP 364) and secured 5.33 per cent of the vote. In contrast, the CPI(M) got 5.66 per cent, while the CPI received 1.41 per cent.
Elections are never easy. However, as things stand, the Congress has the initial advantage. But things can change as the Assembly election in Gujarat is due in December this year. It will be interesting to see voter trends in the State, and I would not be surprised to see Chief Minister Narendra Modi sweeping the State election, and having a split verdict in the Lok Sabha poll. We may well see two separate verdicts for the State and Central Governments, as coalition confusion cannot continue in this manner.
I don't think elections will really surprise anyone as basically the needs of the future cannot be met by the politics of the past. The Left may have its own compulsions, but it avoids the reality of reforms and economic growth. It refuses to look at China, Russia and Vietnam, and instead revives the arguments of the Cold War. In a century devoted to global advances on trade and commerce, the Left is thinking of state and party-controlled politics. This is not working either in West Bengal or in Kerala.
There are sound arguments that the benefits of the current growth are not evenly distributed. Clearly, it is a part of governance to make this possible. But does any country in the world, or any political system, have a better alternative strategy? The fact is, the Left, despite all its political muscle and dedicated party cadre, will lose seats in Kerala and West Bengal, as it ignores the reality and the aspirations of the people by stalling economic growth. I have had the privilege of working closely with Mr Harkishen Singh Surjit and Mr Jyoti Basu. They were men of exceptional integrity and ability. I hope that they are well enough to exert influence. They, along with Mr Prakash Karat and Mr Sitaram Yechury, will have to salvage the situation, as the Left has much to lose.
The situation in West Bengal is deteriorating, as the Nandigram wound continues to fester. The death of Rizwanur Rehman, who married the daughter of high-profile Ashok Todi, is threatening to engulf the Left Front Government in the State. Every State can face similar situations, but these become issues when political credibility is low.
We are all looking at coalition structures for the future. We have had coalition structures now for close to two decades starting from our chaotic Government in 1989. And now I wonder whether the electorate is moving towards greater stability and a majority Government. This could become apparent in the next two elections. We are looking at a change in the outlook of voters, and I think the Congress and the BJP can gain because of this change.
The talks between the Congress and the Left will continue and I feel rather sad that the Left with a five per cent vote-bank is holding the Government to ransom on the nuclear issue. The spin-off of this will have an impact on the economy. We are poised for record growth, and have to sustain our efforts and legislate for the future. In this situation the attitude of the Left is not to our advantage. We are producing wealth for the first time by productivity; and, while we can argue on the method of distribution and greater allocations to the weaker sections, we cannot revert to the past and allow vested interests to control the economy. The Left should not isolate itself on the economic front. It should look at the Left parties in China, Russia and Vietnam and their policies on trade.
<b>My personal assessment is that the Congress will be losing a window of opportunity if it misses the February-March 2008 election, as anti-incumbency trends have not yet settled in fully in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. And these States can well determine the future of the next coalition. The Congress, if it reaches the target of 180-190 seats in the election, will have little difficulty in forming the Government, as all alliances are flexible. The Congress, after the initial confusion, has handled the Ram Setu issue well, and the father-son combination of Mr HD Deve Gowda and Mr HD Kumaraswamy in Karnataka has given an equal opportunity to the Congress and the BJP to gain an advantage.</b>
Elections are never easy to forecast, but I see greater stability in the future after elections are over in early 2008, and I see increased economic growth and productivity. I would be surprised if anyone in the market either here or abroad will have any disagreement on this.
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