2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

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IB report sees BJP, UPA slide in early polls, key with BSP

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->In the event of a midterm Lok Sabha poll, <b>the Congress will not gain seats, says a top secret Intelligence Bureau report prepared for the prime minister's eyes only</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The silver lining in the report for the Congress is that the biggest loser will be the its main rival and main opposition party in Parliament <b>Bharatiya Janata Party as its number in the Lok Sabha is assessed to drop from the present 131 to any where between 95 and 100.</b>
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<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->It says the <b>Congress will get 150 to 155 seats as against 150 seats </b>it has in the Lok Sabha now while the tally of its two main allies -- the <b>Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of M Karunanidhi -- will shrink.</b> <span style='color:red'>DMK's number may drop from the present 16 to anywhere between five and eight while the AIADMK that had drawn blank in the last election may get 12 to 15 seats.</span> The RJD's strength is expected to fall from 24 to 10-12.

<b>Among the losers will be the Samajwadi Party of former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav whose number may drop from 38 in the Lok Sabha to 8 to 10 </b>while Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister <b>Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party may shoot up its strength in the House from 18 to anywhere between 40 and 45</b>, including some seats from outside UP.

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