09-04-2007, 12:35 AM
<b>Left can't set the agenda</b> - Arun Nehru
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->We accuse the police and the security forces for intelligence failure, but the real blame should go to lack of effective decision-making at the political level. I have got tired of writing this over the past few years, and <b>I think the Congress and the Left will see the backlash of this in the Gujarat Assembly election scheduled to take place within the next few months, and in the revival of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->We are in an election mode, and my thinking is that election in the immediate future cannot be avoided. <b>We have an interesting situation: While within the UPA, the Congress stands to gain, its allies (barring the NCP) stand to lose seats. The RJD, the JMM and the DMK will all lose in numbers. The situation is just the reverse for the NDA, as the BJP will lose to the Congress because of anti-incumbency trends, but its allies will all gain or hold on to their numbers, particularly the JD(U), the Shiv Sena and the BJD. The Left will drop very sharply in West Bengal and Kerala.</b>
<b>The NDA lost the last election in 2004 as both the TDP and the ADMK were wiped out from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively. And now both parties are in a comeback mode. But they are now in the 'Third Front' and not the NDA.</b>
<b>Things can get very complicated for the Congress in the next few months if the party is seen as being 'soft' on terror and security issues. The party gains will come from the BJP, but if security continues to dominate the agenda, and the majority community reacts, then there can be shifts in election trends. Numbers will determine alliances, and most of those aligned with the Congress, the 'Third Front' and the BJP can travel in any direction as they have done in the past. Of these three main formations, the Congress has the advantage, but in politics nothing can be taken for granted</b>.
We may have avoided an immediate general election, but can the Congress allow the situation to fester? And will the Left stop its constant opposition to reform issues, besides the nuclear deal and closer cooperation with the US? The confusion in governance will do little to improve the situation and trends which persist today will harden against the UPA, if, as pointed out earlier, it is found soft on security issues.
One generally witnesses the game of musical chairs in a coalition, wherein numbers determine power arrangements. <b>As things stand, the Congress may have missed its window of opportunity.</b> Elections are never welcome, as there is uncertainty attached with the results, and no one, including business and media, is in favour of mid-term poll. But taking into account all these factors, one cannot have a system where the Left or anyone else with five per cent of the popular vote and zero political accountability can dictate the political agenda for the country
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->We accuse the police and the security forces for intelligence failure, but the real blame should go to lack of effective decision-making at the political level. I have got tired of writing this over the past few years, and <b>I think the Congress and the Left will see the backlash of this in the Gujarat Assembly election scheduled to take place within the next few months, and in the revival of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->We are in an election mode, and my thinking is that election in the immediate future cannot be avoided. <b>We have an interesting situation: While within the UPA, the Congress stands to gain, its allies (barring the NCP) stand to lose seats. The RJD, the JMM and the DMK will all lose in numbers. The situation is just the reverse for the NDA, as the BJP will lose to the Congress because of anti-incumbency trends, but its allies will all gain or hold on to their numbers, particularly the JD(U), the Shiv Sena and the BJD. The Left will drop very sharply in West Bengal and Kerala.</b>
<b>The NDA lost the last election in 2004 as both the TDP and the ADMK were wiped out from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu respectively. And now both parties are in a comeback mode. But they are now in the 'Third Front' and not the NDA.</b>
<b>Things can get very complicated for the Congress in the next few months if the party is seen as being 'soft' on terror and security issues. The party gains will come from the BJP, but if security continues to dominate the agenda, and the majority community reacts, then there can be shifts in election trends. Numbers will determine alliances, and most of those aligned with the Congress, the 'Third Front' and the BJP can travel in any direction as they have done in the past. Of these three main formations, the Congress has the advantage, but in politics nothing can be taken for granted</b>.
We may have avoided an immediate general election, but can the Congress allow the situation to fester? And will the Left stop its constant opposition to reform issues, besides the nuclear deal and closer cooperation with the US? The confusion in governance will do little to improve the situation and trends which persist today will harden against the UPA, if, as pointed out earlier, it is found soft on security issues.
One generally witnesses the game of musical chairs in a coalition, wherein numbers determine power arrangements. <b>As things stand, the Congress may have missed its window of opportunity.</b> Elections are never welcome, as there is uncertainty attached with the results, and no one, including business and media, is in favour of mid-term poll. But taking into account all these factors, one cannot have a system where the Left or anyone else with five per cent of the popular vote and zero political accountability can dictate the political agenda for the country
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->