05-06-2007, 06:07 AM
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--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tongue.gif' /><!--endemo--> UP polls: Politicians prepare wish lists
Chandan Mitra | New Delhi
Elections are supposed to reflect the people's will. But in UP, the will of the people has another dimension: The politicians' wish. Irrespective of the final outcome that will be known this Friday, politicians have already started preparing their wish list. And most of them wish Mayawati is kept out somehow.
Parliament nowadays is agog with speculation. In the Central Hall, the canteens on the first floor and the Smoking Room (which is Left-dominated barring a smattering of NDA supporters and the occasional Congress MP) almost the only subject of conversation is the possible outcome of the UP Assembly poll. Most MPs, especially those from north of the Vindhyas, are obsessed with how voters have behaved in India's largest State.
Cross-party conversation begins innocuously enough: "Aur bhaisaa'b, kya lagta hai aapko? Kya honewala hai UP mein?" Congress MPs try to explore the BJP's mind, BJP MPs are busy trying to find out the Congress's strategy, somewhat subdued Samajwadis attempt to hide their mounting insecurity with vocal display of bravado, the Left wants to figure out which way parties will go in the Presidential election, which is likely to be substantially determined by the UP outcome.
The interesting thing is that the two national parties seem to share a common objective. Neither wants anybody to form a Government in Lucknow. The Congress, despite its ostensible support for the BSP, is petrified at the prospect of having to support Mayawati for the Chief Minister's kursi. So in private conversation Congress MPs express a fervent desire for her juggernaut not to cross the 150 mark.
"If she can't go beyond 150, we will not be under pressure to support her. We don't realistically expect to go beyond 30-35 seats. So, if the BSP stops at 120-130, even our support won't help and we will escape the compulsion. But if she crosses 150 and we still don't help her become CM, she is the type who will withdraw support to the UPA Government. Minus her 19 MPs, our Government might fall," projected a senior Congress MP over lunch.
This is a view echoed by most Congressmen in private. They point to Mayawati's role in the recent Delhi MCD poll for it was the BSP that really caused the Congress's rout. "Mayawati always ends up biting the hand that feeds her. She first became a major player riding piggyback on Mulayam Singh in 1993. After she broke with him, she climbed to power on the BJP's back three times. After each doomed alliance, she grew in strength, the BJP weakened. We know she is a dangerous ally, that's why we hope she doesn't win enough seats to make a bid for power with our reluctant backing," explained another seasoned Congress member.
On their part, BJP MPs are hard put to convincingly claim they won't enter into an alliance with BSP or Mulayam Singh. One Left MP confidently asserted: "For BJP it is win-win. They will go either with BSP or Samajwadi." A BJP MP engaged him in argument saying his party was not possessed by a death wish. "How can we do a formal deal with Mulayam Singh? Our core voter will revolt and swell Mayawati's ranks while Mulayam's Muslim vote goes to the Congress or BSP. Thrice-bitten, we are struggling to get our upper caste vote back because it is straying towards BSP. There is no question of allying again with her," he tried hard to convince his interlocutors.
A Congress MP who overheard the debate piped up, "Please tie-up with Mulayam Singh. We are praying you do. That will bring both Muslims and upper castes back to the Congress next time." Angrily, the BJP MP shot back: "Your organisation is non-existent. Even Rahul Gandhi's road show has flopped. That's why you want President's Rule so that you can manipulate things." The Congress leader put his arm around the BJP man's shoulder and, lowering his voice, said, "We know you have no problem with President's Rule either. Your target is Delhi, not Lucknow, at least not yet." The BJP MP made a quick getaway at that point.
Parliament's UP story must necessarily remain incomplete because one of the major protagonists, the BSP, never engages in conversation. They are under instructions from their feared supremo not to get friendly with fellow MPs or indulge in loose talk. When invited to join for a coffee one of them candidly admitted, "Behenji naraaz hoti hain. Unko khabar ho jaati hai (She gets angry and somehow news always reaches her)".
Cut out their formal assertions of outright victory and Samajwadi MPs also fervently wish that BSP's tally stops around the 100 mark. They will not be unhappy if the BJP takes the single-largest party slot although they hope Mulayam will confound pollsters once more and retain power. But the Samajwadis are worried that whether Mayawati makes it to 5 Kalidas Marg or President's Rule happens (which amounts to Sonia Gandhi's reign by proxy), their leaders will face serious harassment from official agencies.
What then? Two theories are doing the rounds. If Mulayam Singh ends up third and finds the BJP in the first position, he may not mind if some of his MLAs indulge in anti-party activity, get expelled, and form a block to support Kalyan Singh. The other theory is that smaller parties and Independents, probably totaling around 40, could come together and stake claim to form a Government with outside support from both SP and BJP. After all, the BJP backed VP Singh's Janata Dal Government till Lalu Prasad Yadav arrested LK Advani in 1989, didn't it? Wags are already saying if Independents can run a Government in Jharkhand mainly with outside support, why can't it happen in UP? The search for Madhu Koda's clone may have already begun!
-- This report is based on privileged conversation and hence no names are given.
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tongue.gif' /><!--endemo--> UP polls: Politicians prepare wish lists Chandan Mitra | New Delhi
Elections are supposed to reflect the people's will. But in UP, the will of the people has another dimension: The politicians' wish. Irrespective of the final outcome that will be known this Friday, politicians have already started preparing their wish list. And most of them wish Mayawati is kept out somehow.
Parliament nowadays is agog with speculation. In the Central Hall, the canteens on the first floor and the Smoking Room (which is Left-dominated barring a smattering of NDA supporters and the occasional Congress MP) almost the only subject of conversation is the possible outcome of the UP Assembly poll. Most MPs, especially those from north of the Vindhyas, are obsessed with how voters have behaved in India's largest State.
Cross-party conversation begins innocuously enough: "Aur bhaisaa'b, kya lagta hai aapko? Kya honewala hai UP mein?" Congress MPs try to explore the BJP's mind, BJP MPs are busy trying to find out the Congress's strategy, somewhat subdued Samajwadis attempt to hide their mounting insecurity with vocal display of bravado, the Left wants to figure out which way parties will go in the Presidential election, which is likely to be substantially determined by the UP outcome.
The interesting thing is that the two national parties seem to share a common objective. Neither wants anybody to form a Government in Lucknow. The Congress, despite its ostensible support for the BSP, is petrified at the prospect of having to support Mayawati for the Chief Minister's kursi. So in private conversation Congress MPs express a fervent desire for her juggernaut not to cross the 150 mark.
"If she can't go beyond 150, we will not be under pressure to support her. We don't realistically expect to go beyond 30-35 seats. So, if the BSP stops at 120-130, even our support won't help and we will escape the compulsion. But if she crosses 150 and we still don't help her become CM, she is the type who will withdraw support to the UPA Government. Minus her 19 MPs, our Government might fall," projected a senior Congress MP over lunch.
This is a view echoed by most Congressmen in private. They point to Mayawati's role in the recent Delhi MCD poll for it was the BSP that really caused the Congress's rout. "Mayawati always ends up biting the hand that feeds her. She first became a major player riding piggyback on Mulayam Singh in 1993. After she broke with him, she climbed to power on the BJP's back three times. After each doomed alliance, she grew in strength, the BJP weakened. We know she is a dangerous ally, that's why we hope she doesn't win enough seats to make a bid for power with our reluctant backing," explained another seasoned Congress member.
On their part, BJP MPs are hard put to convincingly claim they won't enter into an alliance with BSP or Mulayam Singh. One Left MP confidently asserted: "For BJP it is win-win. They will go either with BSP or Samajwadi." A BJP MP engaged him in argument saying his party was not possessed by a death wish. "How can we do a formal deal with Mulayam Singh? Our core voter will revolt and swell Mayawati's ranks while Mulayam's Muslim vote goes to the Congress or BSP. Thrice-bitten, we are struggling to get our upper caste vote back because it is straying towards BSP. There is no question of allying again with her," he tried hard to convince his interlocutors.
A Congress MP who overheard the debate piped up, "Please tie-up with Mulayam Singh. We are praying you do. That will bring both Muslims and upper castes back to the Congress next time." Angrily, the BJP MP shot back: "Your organisation is non-existent. Even Rahul Gandhi's road show has flopped. That's why you want President's Rule so that you can manipulate things." The Congress leader put his arm around the BJP man's shoulder and, lowering his voice, said, "We know you have no problem with President's Rule either. Your target is Delhi, not Lucknow, at least not yet." The BJP MP made a quick getaway at that point.
Parliament's UP story must necessarily remain incomplete because one of the major protagonists, the BSP, never engages in conversation. They are under instructions from their feared supremo not to get friendly with fellow MPs or indulge in loose talk. When invited to join for a coffee one of them candidly admitted, "Behenji naraaz hoti hain. Unko khabar ho jaati hai (She gets angry and somehow news always reaches her)".
Cut out their formal assertions of outright victory and Samajwadi MPs also fervently wish that BSP's tally stops around the 100 mark. They will not be unhappy if the BJP takes the single-largest party slot although they hope Mulayam will confound pollsters once more and retain power. But the Samajwadis are worried that whether Mayawati makes it to 5 Kalidas Marg or President's Rule happens (which amounts to Sonia Gandhi's reign by proxy), their leaders will face serious harassment from official agencies.
What then? Two theories are doing the rounds. If Mulayam Singh ends up third and finds the BJP in the first position, he may not mind if some of his MLAs indulge in anti-party activity, get expelled, and form a block to support Kalyan Singh. The other theory is that smaller parties and Independents, probably totaling around 40, could come together and stake claim to form a Government with outside support from both SP and BJP. After all, the BJP backed VP Singh's Janata Dal Government till Lalu Prasad Yadav arrested LK Advani in 1989, didn't it? Wags are already saying if Independents can run a Government in Jharkhand mainly with outside support, why can't it happen in UP? The search for Madhu Koda's clone may have already begun!
-- This report is based on privileged conversation and hence no names are given.