As far as the elections are concerned, congress is not even in the game in this region. The loser really is BSP, whose votes will be split between BJP and SP. In my reading of events, however, it is a much larger design than just upcoming elections.
Bharatvarsh, I tried to find some authentic resource on demographics, but could not. So I will have to go by my guesstimate based upon what I see on the ground. Muslim population in city and town areas of Gorakhpur region would be about 20-25% and in rural about 10-15%, but it is fast growing. Only the other day I was checking the village records of my village which is in the deep interiors, and virtually untouched by Islamism so far. (check this site : http://bhulekh.up.nic.in/ - here one can see all land records of all villages of UP. Great resource.) My father and I were surprised to find that so many land portions of our village are now cultivated by muslims. So muslims are growing in rural areas too. (Government can allot land portions it controls, to anyone, like dried pond land and other cutivable areas. And we know who Mulayam will allot lands to, for votes). On the other hand there is a continuous outbound migration of Hindus to other areas like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab etc, for better employments and opportunities. Therefore, the population mix is fast changing.
But demographics of region is a bit different and must be understood in a different context. Hindus are fairly united here. So far, not much "caste division" or Dalit politics, despite presence of large dalit population, this is reflected in relatively poor showing of SP and BSP. Kshatriyas, OBCs and Dalits are particular supporters of Hindutva here. Also understand that the villages of the region, have been a major source of recruitment for Indian Army, since the East India Company days. (Sri Mangal Pandey was from neighbouring Balia). This continues today too. Young men serve in Army and then come back to settle down in their villages. So simple plain villagers of the region are very aware of what is going on in the world, are well connected, and even are a bit militantic. Dont give two hoots to what outside word calls 'law and order'. And in mid of all this, Goraksh Math, either by design or by default, has become the symbol of Hindutva here, since the partition days, when the then Mahant used to be a strong hardliner Hindu-protector, a horse-riding Sannyasi.
During and after partition, the Hindu leaders of the region had supported and promoted accommodating the inbound migrating Hindus coming in from Sindh and Punjab in the city, even in the heart of muslim dominated areas. Even today, there is a large population of Sindhis in Gorakhpur, who are very strong Hindutva supporters too. This population has always been a catalyst for local Hindu sentiments. In the Nepal side of the border, which is known as Tarai, traditionally there has been very strong pro-Hindu feeling, and Maoists could never really enter this belt.
With this in mind, let us understand the larger design. One must read the document which Mudyji had provide to understand the larger perspective here. That really lays bare the overall gameplan in communists' own words.
Second factor. This region falls in the heart of the proposed mughalistan. Somehow or the other, region has so far avoided islamization and maoisation. No Maoisation, No dalit politics, no missionary activities, no gandhi-nehru brand has so far succeeded here. In fact, the town has been source of strength for Hindutva activities for throughout North India. Saraswati Shishu Mandir movement, and Gita Press - these two should be the best examples of how Gorakhpur has served larger Hindutva. (Gita Press' contribution is very important. It flooded the Hindu scriptures in all Indian languages in the Hindu homes thoughout India). Politically, the region had played a different kind of role. It has supported Hindutva-supporting candidates of any party - not just BJP. In fact, every now and then, Math has even supported non-BJP candidates, and Hindutva-supporting elements here can be found infiltrated into all major parties.
So this area has so far not been "liberated". Communists, missionaries, and above all, Islamists, are really after Hindutva to be crushed in Gorakhpur.
Real trouble had started in 1980s, when ISI had infiltrated throughout Nepal. ISI-supported madarsas have sprung up all over Indo-Nepal border. With this, they are trying to harden the local muslim populations, which have so far been more or less non-confrontational. Demographics is fast changing too as I mentioned.
I think these folks now think that there is a shift in balance, and they are in position to openly challenge this Hindutva fort. Gorakhnath Math is its symbol, so start there. Next there will be land captures etc. (Math controls large areas of endowment lands throughout the region). We shall next find Gita Press and Saraswati Shishu Mandir etc reined in. The overall game plan is to eliminate this as a Hindutva bastion, paving way for Mughalistan. Mullayam is only a tool too. I dont think he can see this, or cares anyways.
Bharatvarsh, I tried to find some authentic resource on demographics, but could not. So I will have to go by my guesstimate based upon what I see on the ground. Muslim population in city and town areas of Gorakhpur region would be about 20-25% and in rural about 10-15%, but it is fast growing. Only the other day I was checking the village records of my village which is in the deep interiors, and virtually untouched by Islamism so far. (check this site : http://bhulekh.up.nic.in/ - here one can see all land records of all villages of UP. Great resource.) My father and I were surprised to find that so many land portions of our village are now cultivated by muslims. So muslims are growing in rural areas too. (Government can allot land portions it controls, to anyone, like dried pond land and other cutivable areas. And we know who Mulayam will allot lands to, for votes). On the other hand there is a continuous outbound migration of Hindus to other areas like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab etc, for better employments and opportunities. Therefore, the population mix is fast changing.
But demographics of region is a bit different and must be understood in a different context. Hindus are fairly united here. So far, not much "caste division" or Dalit politics, despite presence of large dalit population, this is reflected in relatively poor showing of SP and BSP. Kshatriyas, OBCs and Dalits are particular supporters of Hindutva here. Also understand that the villages of the region, have been a major source of recruitment for Indian Army, since the East India Company days. (Sri Mangal Pandey was from neighbouring Balia). This continues today too. Young men serve in Army and then come back to settle down in their villages. So simple plain villagers of the region are very aware of what is going on in the world, are well connected, and even are a bit militantic. Dont give two hoots to what outside word calls 'law and order'. And in mid of all this, Goraksh Math, either by design or by default, has become the symbol of Hindutva here, since the partition days, when the then Mahant used to be a strong hardliner Hindu-protector, a horse-riding Sannyasi.
During and after partition, the Hindu leaders of the region had supported and promoted accommodating the inbound migrating Hindus coming in from Sindh and Punjab in the city, even in the heart of muslim dominated areas. Even today, there is a large population of Sindhis in Gorakhpur, who are very strong Hindutva supporters too. This population has always been a catalyst for local Hindu sentiments. In the Nepal side of the border, which is known as Tarai, traditionally there has been very strong pro-Hindu feeling, and Maoists could never really enter this belt.
With this in mind, let us understand the larger design. One must read the document which Mudyji had provide to understand the larger perspective here. That really lays bare the overall gameplan in communists' own words.
Second factor. This region falls in the heart of the proposed mughalistan. Somehow or the other, region has so far avoided islamization and maoisation. No Maoisation, No dalit politics, no missionary activities, no gandhi-nehru brand has so far succeeded here. In fact, the town has been source of strength for Hindutva activities for throughout North India. Saraswati Shishu Mandir movement, and Gita Press - these two should be the best examples of how Gorakhpur has served larger Hindutva. (Gita Press' contribution is very important. It flooded the Hindu scriptures in all Indian languages in the Hindu homes thoughout India). Politically, the region had played a different kind of role. It has supported Hindutva-supporting candidates of any party - not just BJP. In fact, every now and then, Math has even supported non-BJP candidates, and Hindutva-supporting elements here can be found infiltrated into all major parties.
So this area has so far not been "liberated". Communists, missionaries, and above all, Islamists, are really after Hindutva to be crushed in Gorakhpur.
Real trouble had started in 1980s, when ISI had infiltrated throughout Nepal. ISI-supported madarsas have sprung up all over Indo-Nepal border. With this, they are trying to harden the local muslim populations, which have so far been more or less non-confrontational. Demographics is fast changing too as I mentioned.
I think these folks now think that there is a shift in balance, and they are in position to openly challenge this Hindutva fort. Gorakhnath Math is its symbol, so start there. Next there will be land captures etc. (Math controls large areas of endowment lands throughout the region). We shall next find Gita Press and Saraswati Shishu Mandir etc reined in. The overall game plan is to eliminate this as a Hindutva bastion, paving way for Mughalistan. Mullayam is only a tool too. I dont think he can see this, or cares anyways.