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Pakistan News and Discussion-8
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>The Taliban are coming… </b>
FT
Ejaz Haider
Taliban have not merely learned more sophisticated military tactics from insurgents in Iraq; they are now part of radical Islamism which moves across boundaries with the same ease as global capital 

Like the Russians, it seems the Taliban are also coming. The British troops in southern Afghanistan are under constant Taliban fire and at least one report says they may have made a secret deal locally in the Helmand province; there are reports that the planning and execution of attacks by a resurgent Taliban have become more sophisticated; Kabul believes they are being supported by Pakistan; so is also the reported assessment of NATO command in Afghanistan, various observers and think tanks in the West.

Pakistan denies these allegations and cites its own sizeable military efforts in the tribal agencies as proof that it is serious in curbing extremist militancy. However, recently, General Musharraf told a US TV channel that while there is no official support for the Taliban by Pakistan, some former ISI officials might be helping them. General Pervez Musharraf has been quick to point out the number of “Al Qaeda” operatives Pakistan has captured since Islamabad was co-opted in the ongoing conflict five years ago. Islamabad has also advised Kabul to extend its writ over areas which remain outside of central control.

<b>What is going on?
Here are two possibilities: Pakistan is supporting the Taliban and it is not </b>.

If it is supporting the Taliban, then the question is: why has it been going hammer and tongs at the Al Qaeda operatives? In other words, how can it square its anti-Al Qaeda policy with its, supposedly, pro-Taliban policy?

Let’s begin with a hypothesis, going back to the US reaction after 9/11. What did the US want when President Bush sent his ultimatum to the Taliban? Did he ask them to relinquish power, get out of Kabul and make space for the Northern Alliance or any other motley group the US might have wanted to install in Kabul? No. The message was simple: deliver Osama bin Laden or face the music.

Now let’s go about the obvious somewhat tortuously. What would have happened if Mullah Omar had buckled under and handed over Bin Laden to the US? Would the US have attacked Afghanistan and destroyed the Taliban? The answer then, as now, is no. The Taliban would still have been there.

The US has lived with scores of regressive regimes – until they become a threat. The military junta in Myanmar is a good example, among many. Washington was never enamoured of the Taliban’s literalist Islam blended with an extremely regressive Pashtun tribalism. But it did business with them (Unocal episode is a case in point) and could have continued to do so if the Taliban had not become a threat through Al Qaeda.

This is precisely why the Bush administration agreed with Islamabad’s request that the latter be given time to coax Mullah Omar to surrender Bin Laden. The mission failed and the US attacked.

Pakistan ditched the Taliban. The danger of siding with them at the time was greater than any benefits that could be had from associating with them. And what was Pakistan’s compulsion in supporting the Taliban until they fell foul of America? The alternative was anti-Pakistan elements, supported by Russia, Iran, some Central Asian Republics and, yes, India.

Taliban were a Hobson’s choice for Pakistan within the paradigm in which Pakistan perceives its security and through which it also relates to India.

The scene changes: the US attacks Afghanistan, ousts the Taliban, brings in the Northern Alliance, and begins to reconstruct the country. That was five years ago. The initial US policy thrust was military and its major component was capturing Bin Laden. Local warlords were co-opted even as the US was trying to create effective government in Kabul. It had also to begin grappling with the Afghan’s age-old tactics of grouping, attacking, melting away and re-grouping.

Then came Iraq.

The US suddenly lost the world support it had earned for attacking Afghanistan. Attention was largely diverted. The initial thrust to rebuild Afghanistan decelerated for a host of reasons, all of which, in combination, have brought despondency to that country. The forms of modernity, of which affluent areas of Kabul are the only manifestation, have not exceeded beyond the capital. The countryside remains what it was.

The last time Afghanistan threw out reformers, the effort was called the great battle for the free world. Disagreement with the PDPA ideology aside, what was the PDPA trying to do if not reform Afghanistan? Now the shoe is on the other foot. The reactionaries of yesterday, called the Mujahideen, are today’s Taliban, though arguably a whole lot more reactionary. Yesterday they wanted none of the left’s cultural liberalism; today, they want none of the free world’s liberalism. In essence, nothing has changed on that count.

But what about Pakistan?

Kabul, today, mayn’t be as unfriendly as it was then, but neither is it friendly. The only time there was no Indian diplomatic presence in Afghanistan was from the period 1996 (Taliban takeover of Kabul) through the ouster of the Taliban in 2001. New Delhi’s blindness and helplessness is well recorded in Jaswant Singh’s call to honour in handling the IC814 hijacking. In equal measure was Pakistan’s schadenfreude .

Let’s try and put the pieces of the hypothesis together. If Kabul is unfriendly; if Pakistan can deliver Al Qaeda activists; if the Indians are making mischief through Afghanistan; if the US is under pressure and stretched; if it still needs Pakistan to track down Al Qaeda, then what would X in Islamabad do in relation to the Taliban as opposed to Al Qaeda?

He would support them: Kabul would remain under pressure; so would the Indians. Pakistan will remain relevant to the internal security of that country and, if it can get Kabul to make peace with the Taliban, even to its politics and internal decision-making. As for the US, let Washington choose between Pakistan’s support for the Taliban or its campaign against Al Qaeda.

If the US were absolutely sure that after it left Afghanistan, the Al Qaeda would not re-group there or become a threat for it, what would it do? It would leave.

It has to, at some point. In some ways by putting the Brits in the line of fire, it already has. One American analyst recently said the Taliban think that “God and time are on their side”. I don’t know about God because both sides invoke Him, but time is definitely on the side of the Taliban; so it is on Pakistan’s.

Pakistan has made a deal in North Waziristan; it has asked Karzai to do the same. It has even got Britain on its side. If Kabul makes a deal with the Taliban through which the latter enter the political fray, Islamabad would have won the first round.

Of course, all this is hypothetical, though I use known facts to build this framework and apply it.

The second possibility is that Pakistan is not supporting the Taliban. To this end one can argue that the federal government’s deal in North Waziristan is actually a sign of weakness, begotten of the inability to control the area for various reasons, not least the spread of the movement across tribal affiliations. Having failed through force to achieve what it wanted, Islamabad now wants to rest content with confining trouble to the tribal badlands. Its argument that Kabul do the same is born of its own failure to control such elements.

In this scenario Pakistan is as much a victim as Kabul or even the NATO troops dug in and keeping their heads low in southern Afghanistan.

But while both scenarios are diametrically opposed to each other, there is a common strand, nonetheless: the region will be exposed to the obscurantist ideology of the Taliban. The movement is unlikely to remain a simple manifestation of Pashtun tribalism wedded to religious literalism. It will be naïve to think that the Taliban have only learned more sophisticated military tactics from insurgents in Iraq; they are now part of radical Islamism which moves across boundaries with the same ease as global capital. This has also been admitted by General Musharraf.

He is right. But then both courses of action we have discussed earlier are disastrous
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Pakistan News and Discussion-8 - by Guest - 09-09-2006, 02:34 AM
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Pakistan News and Discussion-8 - by acharya - 11-09-2006, 12:52 AM
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