07-24-2006, 02:29 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Pakistan Expanding Nuclear Program</b>
Plant Underway Could Generate Plutonium for 40 to 50 Bombs a Year, Analysts Say
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 24, 2006; Page A01
Pakistan has begun building what independent analysts say is a powerful new reactor for producing plutonium, a move that, if verified, would signal a major expansion of the country's nuclear weapons capabilities and a potential new escalation in the region's arms race.
Satellite photos of Pakistan's Khushab nuclear site show what appears to be a partially completed heavy-water reactor capable of producing enough plutonium for 40 to 50 nuclear weapons a year, a 20-fold increase from Pakistan's current capabilities, according to a technical assessment by Washington-based nuclear experts.
The construction site is adjacent to Pakistan's only plutonium production reactor, a modest, 50-megawatt unit that began operating in 1998. By contrast, the dimensions of the new reactor suggest a capacity of 1,000 megawatts or more, according to the analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security. Pakistan is believed to have 30 to 50 uranium warheads, which tend to be heavier and more difficult than plutonium warheads to mount on missiles.
"South Asia may be heading for a nuclear arms race that could lead to arsenals growing into the hundreds of nuclear weapons, or at minimum, vastly expanded stockpiles of military fissile material," the institute's David Albright and Paul Brannan concluded in the technical assessment, a copy of which was provided to The Washington Post.
The assessment's key judgments were endorsed by two other independent nuclear experts who reviewed the commercially available satellite images, provided by Digital Globe, and supporting data. In Pakistan, officials would not confirm or deny the report, but a senior Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that a nuclear expansion was underway.
"Pakistan's nuclear program has matured. We're now consolidating the program with further expansions," the official said. The expanded program includes "some civilian nuclear power and some military components," he said.
The development raises fresh concerns about a decades-old rivalry between Pakistan and India. Both countries already possess dozens of nuclear warheads and a variety of missiles and other means for delivering them.
Pakistan, like India, has never signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. One of its pioneering nuclear scientists, Abdul Qadeer Khan, who confessed two years ago to operating a network that supplied nuclear materials and know-how to Libya, Iran and North Korea.
The evidence of a possible escalation also comes as Congress prepares to debate a controversial nuclear cooperation agreement between the Bush administration and India. The agreement would grant India access to sensitive U.S. nuclear technology in return for placing its civilian nuclear reactors under tighter safeguards. No such restrictions were placed on India's military nuclear facilities. India currently has an estimated 30 to 35 nuclear warheads based on a sophisticated plutonium design. Pakistan, which uses a simpler, uranium-based warhead design, has sought for years to modernize its arsenal, and a new heavy-water reactor could allow it to do so, weapons experts say.
"With plutonium bombs, Pakistan can fully join the nuclear club," said a Europe-based diplomat and nuclear expert, speaking on condition that he not be identified by name, after reviewing the satellite evidence. He concurred with the Institute for Science and International Security assessment but offered a somewhat lower estimate -- "up to tenfold" -- for the increase in Pakistan's plutonium production. A third, U.S.-based expert concurred fully with the institute's estimates. Pakistan launched its nuclear program in the early 1970s and conducted its first successful nuclear test in 1998.
The completion of the first, 50-megawatt plutonium production reactor in Pakistan's central Khushab district was seen as a step toward modernizing the country's arsenal. The reactor is capable of producing about 10 kilograms of plutonium a year, enough for about two warheads. Construction of the larger reactor at Khushab apparently began sometime in 2000. Satellite photos taken in the spring of 2005 showed the frame of a rectangular building enclosing what appeared to be the round metal shell of a large nuclear reactor. A year later, in April 2006, the roof of the structure was still incomplete, allowing an unobstructed view of the reactor's features.
"The fact that the roof is still off strikes me as a sign that Pakistan is neither rushing nor attempting to conceal," said Albright of the institute.
The slow pace of construction could suggest difficulties in obtaining parts, or simply that other key facilities for plutonium bomb-making are not yet in place, the institute report concludes. Pakistan would probably need to expand its capacity for producing heavy water for its new reactor, as well as its ability to reprocess spent nuclear fuel to extract the plutonium, the report says.
After comparing a sequence of satellite photos, the institute analysts estimated that the new reactor was still "a few years" from completion. The diameter of the structure's metal shell suggests a very large reactor "operating in excess of 1,000 megawatts thermal,"
the report says.
"Such a reactor could produce over 200 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium per year, assuming it operates at full power a modest 220 days per year," it says. "At 4 to 5 kilograms of plutonium per weapon, this stock would allow the production of over 40 to 50 nuclear weapons a year."
There was no immediate reaction to the report from the Bush administration. Albright said he shared his data with government nuclear analysts, who did not dispute his conclusions and appeared to already know about the new reactor.
"If there's an increasing risk of an arms race in South Asia, why hasn't this already been introduced into the debate?" Albright asked. He said the Pakistani development adds urgency to calls for a treaty halting the production of fissile material used in nuclear weapons.
"The United States needs to push more aggressively for a fissile material cut-off treaty, and so far it has not," he said. Special correspondent Kamran Khan in Karachi, Pakistan, and researcher
Alice Crites in Washington contributed to this report.
http://tinyurl.com/s5kt3
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/so.../newkhushab.pdf ISIS
Report on Commercial Satellite Imagery Suggests Pakistan is Building a
Second, Much Larger Plutonium Production Reactor: Is South
Asia Headed for a Dramatic Buildup in Nuclear Arsenals?
By David Albright and Paul Brannan
July 24, 2006
Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS)
Commercial satellite imagery from Digital Globe appears to show the construction of a second heavy water production reactor inside the Khushab complex in Pakistan (figure 1). The image shows a round, metal structure inside a square building under construction that appears to be a reactor vessel. This reactor appears much larger than the operating reactor on the site1, which went critical in 1998 and is estimated to have a power of about 50 MWth. The reactor under construction is estimated to be capable of operating in excess of 1,000 megawatts-thermal, according to analysis based on the diameter of the vessel. Such a reactor could produce over 200 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium per year, assuming it operates at full power for a modest 220 days per year. At 4-5 kilograms of plutonium per weapon, this stock would allow the production of over 40-50 nuclear weapons a year. The reactor could also be used to produce substantial amounts of tritium for boosted fission weapons.
Figure 1 Overview of the Khushab complex, in the Khushab district of Punjab.
1 See http://isis-online.org/publications/southa...habreactor.html
Figure 2 A close up of the building suspected to be a large heavy
water, plutonium production reactor. Based on a set of images, construction of the reactor started after March 2000. In the image from June 2005, a possible reactor vessel is visible within the inner portion of the building (figure 2). The support columns for the outer portion of the building are visible as well. A large crane is visible just outside the building. Situated to the west of the main building is a structure suspected to be a mosque. It is the only building within the Khushab site with walls that are not parallel to those of other buildings and appears to face Mecca. Figure 3 More recent close up of the construction site.
In an April 2006 image (figure 3), the outer portion of the building has been covered with a roof. Across the ground next to the new crane are what appear to be several arched metal rods. These pieces could be used as the frame for a roof on top of the inner structure. The linear distance between the ends of the arched rods and the distance between the east and west walls of the inside structure are both approximately 105 feet. The construction activity just above the north-east corner of the entire building could be the foundation for a stack.
The round object inside the building has a diameter of about 5 meters. This is significantly larger than the corresponding vessel in the existing reactor at this site. Based on the size of the vessel, assuming moderation by heavy water, standard values for heavy water reactors, and economical use of the volume of the vessel, this reactor is estimated to be capable of operating in excess of 1,000 megawatts-thermal. It is important to note that this estimate remains uncertain, absent any confirmatory information from Pakistan.
Based on the apparent rate of construction, the reactor could be finished within a few years. However, nothing suggests that Pakistan is moving quickly to finish this reactor.
The driving forces behind the reactor completion schedule could be a shortage of necessary reactor components or other parts of the weapons-production infrastructure,such as the rate of heavy water production, the availability of a sufficient fuel reprocessing capacity or, perhaps, the availability of sufficient modern tritium recovery and packaging facilities. For example, Pakistan may not have enough heavy water for this reactor, which could require about 100-150 tonnes of heavy water. The Khushab site has a heavy water production plant2 able to produce an estimated 13 tonnes of heavy water a year, a relatively small production capability. Pakistan may not be able to reprocess all of the anticipated irradiated fuel from this reactor. It is known to process fuel to separate plutonium at the New Labs facility at Rawalpindi, and this facility was expanded between about 1998 and 2002. However, this increase in capacity was believed to be associated with the smaller, heavy water reactor.
India is likely aware of this reactor construction in Khushab. Has this influenced India to increase its own plutonium production capacity for its nuclear weapons program? India has insisted on maintaining outside of safeguards a major reprocessing facility and a large number of nuclear power reactors in the recent negotiations between the United States and India aimed at increasing peaceful nuclear cooperation.
South Asia may be heading for a nuclear arms race that could lead to arsenals growing into the hundreds of nuclear weapons, or at a minimum vastly expanded stockpiles of military fissile material. A negotiated agreement that results in a halt to the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons should be a priority for the international community.
Not only are such arsenals a waste of precious resources, they increase instability in the region and could needlessly provoke China to respond by increasing the size and lethality of its own nuclear capabilities.
1 See http://isis-online.org/publications/southa...habreactor.html
2 http://isis-online.org/publications/southa...abheavyh2o.html<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Plant Underway Could Generate Plutonium for 40 to 50 Bombs a Year, Analysts Say
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 24, 2006; Page A01
Pakistan has begun building what independent analysts say is a powerful new reactor for producing plutonium, a move that, if verified, would signal a major expansion of the country's nuclear weapons capabilities and a potential new escalation in the region's arms race.
Satellite photos of Pakistan's Khushab nuclear site show what appears to be a partially completed heavy-water reactor capable of producing enough plutonium for 40 to 50 nuclear weapons a year, a 20-fold increase from Pakistan's current capabilities, according to a technical assessment by Washington-based nuclear experts.
The construction site is adjacent to Pakistan's only plutonium production reactor, a modest, 50-megawatt unit that began operating in 1998. By contrast, the dimensions of the new reactor suggest a capacity of 1,000 megawatts or more, according to the analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security. Pakistan is believed to have 30 to 50 uranium warheads, which tend to be heavier and more difficult than plutonium warheads to mount on missiles.
"South Asia may be heading for a nuclear arms race that could lead to arsenals growing into the hundreds of nuclear weapons, or at minimum, vastly expanded stockpiles of military fissile material," the institute's David Albright and Paul Brannan concluded in the technical assessment, a copy of which was provided to The Washington Post.
The assessment's key judgments were endorsed by two other independent nuclear experts who reviewed the commercially available satellite images, provided by Digital Globe, and supporting data. In Pakistan, officials would not confirm or deny the report, but a senior Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that a nuclear expansion was underway.
"Pakistan's nuclear program has matured. We're now consolidating the program with further expansions," the official said. The expanded program includes "some civilian nuclear power and some military components," he said.
The development raises fresh concerns about a decades-old rivalry between Pakistan and India. Both countries already possess dozens of nuclear warheads and a variety of missiles and other means for delivering them.
Pakistan, like India, has never signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. One of its pioneering nuclear scientists, Abdul Qadeer Khan, who confessed two years ago to operating a network that supplied nuclear materials and know-how to Libya, Iran and North Korea.
The evidence of a possible escalation also comes as Congress prepares to debate a controversial nuclear cooperation agreement between the Bush administration and India. The agreement would grant India access to sensitive U.S. nuclear technology in return for placing its civilian nuclear reactors under tighter safeguards. No such restrictions were placed on India's military nuclear facilities. India currently has an estimated 30 to 35 nuclear warheads based on a sophisticated plutonium design. Pakistan, which uses a simpler, uranium-based warhead design, has sought for years to modernize its arsenal, and a new heavy-water reactor could allow it to do so, weapons experts say.
"With plutonium bombs, Pakistan can fully join the nuclear club," said a Europe-based diplomat and nuclear expert, speaking on condition that he not be identified by name, after reviewing the satellite evidence. He concurred with the Institute for Science and International Security assessment but offered a somewhat lower estimate -- "up to tenfold" -- for the increase in Pakistan's plutonium production. A third, U.S.-based expert concurred fully with the institute's estimates. Pakistan launched its nuclear program in the early 1970s and conducted its first successful nuclear test in 1998.
The completion of the first, 50-megawatt plutonium production reactor in Pakistan's central Khushab district was seen as a step toward modernizing the country's arsenal. The reactor is capable of producing about 10 kilograms of plutonium a year, enough for about two warheads. Construction of the larger reactor at Khushab apparently began sometime in 2000. Satellite photos taken in the spring of 2005 showed the frame of a rectangular building enclosing what appeared to be the round metal shell of a large nuclear reactor. A year later, in April 2006, the roof of the structure was still incomplete, allowing an unobstructed view of the reactor's features.
"The fact that the roof is still off strikes me as a sign that Pakistan is neither rushing nor attempting to conceal," said Albright of the institute.
The slow pace of construction could suggest difficulties in obtaining parts, or simply that other key facilities for plutonium bomb-making are not yet in place, the institute report concludes. Pakistan would probably need to expand its capacity for producing heavy water for its new reactor, as well as its ability to reprocess spent nuclear fuel to extract the plutonium, the report says.
After comparing a sequence of satellite photos, the institute analysts estimated that the new reactor was still "a few years" from completion. The diameter of the structure's metal shell suggests a very large reactor "operating in excess of 1,000 megawatts thermal,"
the report says.
"Such a reactor could produce over 200 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium per year, assuming it operates at full power a modest 220 days per year," it says. "At 4 to 5 kilograms of plutonium per weapon, this stock would allow the production of over 40 to 50 nuclear weapons a year."
There was no immediate reaction to the report from the Bush administration. Albright said he shared his data with government nuclear analysts, who did not dispute his conclusions and appeared to already know about the new reactor.
"If there's an increasing risk of an arms race in South Asia, why hasn't this already been introduced into the debate?" Albright asked. He said the Pakistani development adds urgency to calls for a treaty halting the production of fissile material used in nuclear weapons.
"The United States needs to push more aggressively for a fissile material cut-off treaty, and so far it has not," he said. Special correspondent Kamran Khan in Karachi, Pakistan, and researcher
Alice Crites in Washington contributed to this report.
http://tinyurl.com/s5kt3
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/so.../newkhushab.pdf ISIS
Report on Commercial Satellite Imagery Suggests Pakistan is Building a
Second, Much Larger Plutonium Production Reactor: Is South
Asia Headed for a Dramatic Buildup in Nuclear Arsenals?
By David Albright and Paul Brannan
July 24, 2006
Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS)
Commercial satellite imagery from Digital Globe appears to show the construction of a second heavy water production reactor inside the Khushab complex in Pakistan (figure 1). The image shows a round, metal structure inside a square building under construction that appears to be a reactor vessel. This reactor appears much larger than the operating reactor on the site1, which went critical in 1998 and is estimated to have a power of about 50 MWth. The reactor under construction is estimated to be capable of operating in excess of 1,000 megawatts-thermal, according to analysis based on the diameter of the vessel. Such a reactor could produce over 200 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium per year, assuming it operates at full power for a modest 220 days per year. At 4-5 kilograms of plutonium per weapon, this stock would allow the production of over 40-50 nuclear weapons a year. The reactor could also be used to produce substantial amounts of tritium for boosted fission weapons.
Figure 1 Overview of the Khushab complex, in the Khushab district of Punjab.
1 See http://isis-online.org/publications/southa...habreactor.html
Figure 2 A close up of the building suspected to be a large heavy
water, plutonium production reactor. Based on a set of images, construction of the reactor started after March 2000. In the image from June 2005, a possible reactor vessel is visible within the inner portion of the building (figure 2). The support columns for the outer portion of the building are visible as well. A large crane is visible just outside the building. Situated to the west of the main building is a structure suspected to be a mosque. It is the only building within the Khushab site with walls that are not parallel to those of other buildings and appears to face Mecca. Figure 3 More recent close up of the construction site.
In an April 2006 image (figure 3), the outer portion of the building has been covered with a roof. Across the ground next to the new crane are what appear to be several arched metal rods. These pieces could be used as the frame for a roof on top of the inner structure. The linear distance between the ends of the arched rods and the distance between the east and west walls of the inside structure are both approximately 105 feet. The construction activity just above the north-east corner of the entire building could be the foundation for a stack.
The round object inside the building has a diameter of about 5 meters. This is significantly larger than the corresponding vessel in the existing reactor at this site. Based on the size of the vessel, assuming moderation by heavy water, standard values for heavy water reactors, and economical use of the volume of the vessel, this reactor is estimated to be capable of operating in excess of 1,000 megawatts-thermal. It is important to note that this estimate remains uncertain, absent any confirmatory information from Pakistan.
Based on the apparent rate of construction, the reactor could be finished within a few years. However, nothing suggests that Pakistan is moving quickly to finish this reactor.
The driving forces behind the reactor completion schedule could be a shortage of necessary reactor components or other parts of the weapons-production infrastructure,such as the rate of heavy water production, the availability of a sufficient fuel reprocessing capacity or, perhaps, the availability of sufficient modern tritium recovery and packaging facilities. For example, Pakistan may not have enough heavy water for this reactor, which could require about 100-150 tonnes of heavy water. The Khushab site has a heavy water production plant2 able to produce an estimated 13 tonnes of heavy water a year, a relatively small production capability. Pakistan may not be able to reprocess all of the anticipated irradiated fuel from this reactor. It is known to process fuel to separate plutonium at the New Labs facility at Rawalpindi, and this facility was expanded between about 1998 and 2002. However, this increase in capacity was believed to be associated with the smaller, heavy water reactor.
India is likely aware of this reactor construction in Khushab. Has this influenced India to increase its own plutonium production capacity for its nuclear weapons program? India has insisted on maintaining outside of safeguards a major reprocessing facility and a large number of nuclear power reactors in the recent negotiations between the United States and India aimed at increasing peaceful nuclear cooperation.
South Asia may be heading for a nuclear arms race that could lead to arsenals growing into the hundreds of nuclear weapons, or at a minimum vastly expanded stockpiles of military fissile material. A negotiated agreement that results in a halt to the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons should be a priority for the international community.
Not only are such arsenals a waste of precious resources, they increase instability in the region and could needlessly provoke China to respond by increasing the size and lethality of its own nuclear capabilities.
1 See http://isis-online.org/publications/southa...habreactor.html
2 http://isis-online.org/publications/southa...abheavyh2o.html<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->