01-20-2006, 09:48 PM
http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodna...eema&sid=1&pn=1
OUTLOOK INDIA.COM, JANUARY 17, 2006
Who Is âContainingâ Whom?
All this neo-con talk of containing China by promoting India has only served to alert the dragon. Perhaps the most unfortunate formulation for India might have been the American offer to help it to become "a world power."
SEEMA SIROHI
WASHINGTON
In the competition for global energy resources, India is being repeatedly outsmarted by China. This week it was beaten to the finish line in its own backyard when Myanmar announced it had finalised a deal with China to sell 6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas over 30 years rather than supply it to India for a proposed gas pipeline through Bangladesh. The reason: India and Bangladesh werenât able to reach an agreement while the more nimble-footed and cash-rich Chinese worked on the junta in Yangoon to accept their offer.
It was the latest in a series of nasty surprises. China has recently beaten Indian oil companies in Kazakhstan, Angola, Ecuador and in Nigeria where India withdrew its bid for a 45 percent stake in an oil and gas field citing "risks" leaving it to the Chinese to snap it up. Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyerâs explanation that Indiaâs entry raised the price for the Chinese hardly assuages the stark reality on the ground -- that China is frantically grabbing oil and gas rights, stakes and companies all over the world and resolutely preparing for the future.
Indian efforts at securing energy by comparison look half-hearted and mired in confusion. And, above all, soft. If India is to play the big game, it must use big muscle -- both financial and strategic. It must develop an integrated approach that includes its foreign, trade and energy policies and geo-strategic goals. It must offer carrots where needed and have the gall to leverage its power where necessary. The competition for oil is likely to get red hot in the future, creating a dog-eat-dog world. There will be no friends, especially among the big guzzlers. To think that India and China can cooperate as "strategic partners" while they hunt for sources of energy as the minister says is to live in an ideal world.
China has given no hint that it wants to be Indiaâs partner, official rhetoric notwithstanding. China will partner India or any other country only to the extent it makes Beijing a little more palatable to the international community and less frightening. It may do a joint bid but only to show that it is not on an all-out grab. Having got the US and EU by their tails by making them dependent on cheap Chinese exports, China has created a dependency from which weaning will be difficult, if not impossible. With smaller countries, specially Indiaâs neighbours, China has been proactive, mercilessly exploiting every gap, every shortcoming of Indian foreign policy.
And four years of neo-con talk in Washington of containing China by promoting India has only served to alert the dragon. It is positioning itself faster than Capitol Hill can summon an expertsâ conclave. In hind sight, perhaps the most unfortunate formulation for India might have been the American offer to help it to become "a world power." Beijing took careful notes and prompt action while India and the US struggle on convincing each other they are good for each other.
Beijing, while modernising furiously at home, is creating links abroad aimed at marking alternate trade routes, highways to the sea and catching countries in a web laced with honeyed deals and outright bribes. From Africa to South America, from East Asia to South Asia, China is intrepidly laying down a solid foundation for the future -- its future. Right under Indian and American noses.
Letâs just examine a few recent offerings from China which directly impact India. After brazenly blocking Indiaâs entry for years in ASEAN and other Asian economic forums, China surprised, rather shocked Indiaâs sleepy diplomats, when it announced its intention last November to be a part of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. When the bomb dropped, it spoke lengths about how shut Indiaâs eyes and ears were in its own neighbourhood.
No one knew that Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal were all behind Chinaâs bid to eclipse India as the largest SAARC country. Nepal even threatened to veto Afghanistanâs entry into SAARC, which India supported, unless China was allowed in. In the end China was given observer status after Indiaâs mumbling efforts to block procedurally what it couldnât substantially.
No sooner was the ink dry on the path-breaking Indo-US nuclear agreement signed last July, China was brazenly working the Pakistanis to ask for the same from the United States. Knowing full well that Washington wouldnât offer a similar deal to Pakistan, given the A.Q. Khan memories, Beijing lost no time in stepping in. What Uncle Sam wonât sell, China will. As a result, Pakistan is busy working out an agreement to purchase six to eight nuclear reactors from China for nearly $10 billion. Chinese Atomic Energy Chief Sun Qin was recently in Mianwali to discuss civilian nuclear cooperation. China is already building Chashma II, a power reactor, in Pakistan. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has talked of raising Pakistanâs nuclear power generation to 8,000 Megawatts by 2030.
China knows that nuclear cooperation with Pakistan will certainly raise questions in Washington about the efficacy of the Indo-US agreement which must pass muster on Capitol Hill where the non-proliferation hard liners are already working to scuttle the deal. Chinaâs timing was deliberate -- it killed two birds with no stone. It showed the Americans that China will do what it pleases in Asia and prevent India from breaking free of the nuclear chains.
In fact, every Chinese move lately appears aimed at hemming in India by working its neighbours. It is getting ready to open a consulate in Biratnagar on the Indo-Nepal border, apparently to help build a highway between Tibet and eastern Nepal. Chinese ambassador to Nepal Sun Heping said it was a top priority to develop a corridor along the Kosi river. Pakistan is reportedly trying to open a consulate in Birganj where India opened one in 2004 to facilitate the high volume of traffic and trade between the two countries. Using the current dip in Indo-Nepalese relations because of King Gyanendraâs autocratic takeover, China and Pakistan are working together to deepen the rift.
Indiaâs eastern neighbour Bangladesh, with whom New Delhi has a difficult relationship, too is on Beijingâs scanner. New Delhi has issues with Bangladesh, an emerging hub of fundamentalism and home to some classic anti-Indian sentiment among the population. Since both the illegal immigration and the movement of militants is directed against India, China has little reason to worry as it steps in to cultivate Bangladesh, offering it aid and trade while gaining another "friend" and outlet to the sea. Meanwhile, Indiaâs relations with its neighbours have been southwardly mobile.
Did anyone say anything about containing China? It seems China is containing India even before it expands.
_______________________________________________
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OUTLOOK INDIA.COM, JANUARY 17, 2006
Who Is âContainingâ Whom?
All this neo-con talk of containing China by promoting India has only served to alert the dragon. Perhaps the most unfortunate formulation for India might have been the American offer to help it to become "a world power."
SEEMA SIROHI
WASHINGTON
In the competition for global energy resources, India is being repeatedly outsmarted by China. This week it was beaten to the finish line in its own backyard when Myanmar announced it had finalised a deal with China to sell 6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas over 30 years rather than supply it to India for a proposed gas pipeline through Bangladesh. The reason: India and Bangladesh werenât able to reach an agreement while the more nimble-footed and cash-rich Chinese worked on the junta in Yangoon to accept their offer.
It was the latest in a series of nasty surprises. China has recently beaten Indian oil companies in Kazakhstan, Angola, Ecuador and in Nigeria where India withdrew its bid for a 45 percent stake in an oil and gas field citing "risks" leaving it to the Chinese to snap it up. Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyerâs explanation that Indiaâs entry raised the price for the Chinese hardly assuages the stark reality on the ground -- that China is frantically grabbing oil and gas rights, stakes and companies all over the world and resolutely preparing for the future.
Indian efforts at securing energy by comparison look half-hearted and mired in confusion. And, above all, soft. If India is to play the big game, it must use big muscle -- both financial and strategic. It must develop an integrated approach that includes its foreign, trade and energy policies and geo-strategic goals. It must offer carrots where needed and have the gall to leverage its power where necessary. The competition for oil is likely to get red hot in the future, creating a dog-eat-dog world. There will be no friends, especially among the big guzzlers. To think that India and China can cooperate as "strategic partners" while they hunt for sources of energy as the minister says is to live in an ideal world.
China has given no hint that it wants to be Indiaâs partner, official rhetoric notwithstanding. China will partner India or any other country only to the extent it makes Beijing a little more palatable to the international community and less frightening. It may do a joint bid but only to show that it is not on an all-out grab. Having got the US and EU by their tails by making them dependent on cheap Chinese exports, China has created a dependency from which weaning will be difficult, if not impossible. With smaller countries, specially Indiaâs neighbours, China has been proactive, mercilessly exploiting every gap, every shortcoming of Indian foreign policy.
And four years of neo-con talk in Washington of containing China by promoting India has only served to alert the dragon. It is positioning itself faster than Capitol Hill can summon an expertsâ conclave. In hind sight, perhaps the most unfortunate formulation for India might have been the American offer to help it to become "a world power." Beijing took careful notes and prompt action while India and the US struggle on convincing each other they are good for each other.
Beijing, while modernising furiously at home, is creating links abroad aimed at marking alternate trade routes, highways to the sea and catching countries in a web laced with honeyed deals and outright bribes. From Africa to South America, from East Asia to South Asia, China is intrepidly laying down a solid foundation for the future -- its future. Right under Indian and American noses.
Letâs just examine a few recent offerings from China which directly impact India. After brazenly blocking Indiaâs entry for years in ASEAN and other Asian economic forums, China surprised, rather shocked Indiaâs sleepy diplomats, when it announced its intention last November to be a part of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. When the bomb dropped, it spoke lengths about how shut Indiaâs eyes and ears were in its own neighbourhood.
No one knew that Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal were all behind Chinaâs bid to eclipse India as the largest SAARC country. Nepal even threatened to veto Afghanistanâs entry into SAARC, which India supported, unless China was allowed in. In the end China was given observer status after Indiaâs mumbling efforts to block procedurally what it couldnât substantially.
No sooner was the ink dry on the path-breaking Indo-US nuclear agreement signed last July, China was brazenly working the Pakistanis to ask for the same from the United States. Knowing full well that Washington wouldnât offer a similar deal to Pakistan, given the A.Q. Khan memories, Beijing lost no time in stepping in. What Uncle Sam wonât sell, China will. As a result, Pakistan is busy working out an agreement to purchase six to eight nuclear reactors from China for nearly $10 billion. Chinese Atomic Energy Chief Sun Qin was recently in Mianwali to discuss civilian nuclear cooperation. China is already building Chashma II, a power reactor, in Pakistan. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has talked of raising Pakistanâs nuclear power generation to 8,000 Megawatts by 2030.
China knows that nuclear cooperation with Pakistan will certainly raise questions in Washington about the efficacy of the Indo-US agreement which must pass muster on Capitol Hill where the non-proliferation hard liners are already working to scuttle the deal. Chinaâs timing was deliberate -- it killed two birds with no stone. It showed the Americans that China will do what it pleases in Asia and prevent India from breaking free of the nuclear chains.
In fact, every Chinese move lately appears aimed at hemming in India by working its neighbours. It is getting ready to open a consulate in Biratnagar on the Indo-Nepal border, apparently to help build a highway between Tibet and eastern Nepal. Chinese ambassador to Nepal Sun Heping said it was a top priority to develop a corridor along the Kosi river. Pakistan is reportedly trying to open a consulate in Birganj where India opened one in 2004 to facilitate the high volume of traffic and trade between the two countries. Using the current dip in Indo-Nepalese relations because of King Gyanendraâs autocratic takeover, China and Pakistan are working together to deepen the rift.
Indiaâs eastern neighbour Bangladesh, with whom New Delhi has a difficult relationship, too is on Beijingâs scanner. New Delhi has issues with Bangladesh, an emerging hub of fundamentalism and home to some classic anti-Indian sentiment among the population. Since both the illegal immigration and the movement of militants is directed against India, China has little reason to worry as it steps in to cultivate Bangladesh, offering it aid and trade while gaining another "friend" and outlet to the sea. Meanwhile, Indiaâs relations with its neighbours have been southwardly mobile.
Did anyone say anything about containing China? It seems China is containing India even before it expands.
_______________________________________________
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