11-28-2005, 07:49 AM
One down, six more to go
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Arun Nehru
In the last six months, I have written consistently about the Third Front. My writings were based on the assumption that both the Congress and the BJP would weaken which would result in realignment of political forces. The Congress does not have leaders who can provide an able leadership to the party and the BJP simply cannot determine a pattern for the future.
As 2005 will become history and we step into 2006, the political graph of the ADMK and the TDP will show a sharp rise. This will enable both the parties to have a decisive say in politics of the future. The Bihar election are first step towards this change.
General election can take place any time now. My prediction is that it will be held before 2006 ends or in early 2007. In Bihar the RJD/Congress/Left alliance has been humbled. With one down and six more elections to go, it would be a miracle if the Congress can win even a single Assembly election.
The Left is all set to sweep West Bengal once again with Trinamul Congress coming second. The same will be true in Kerala where the LDF will trounce UDF. On the other hand in Tamil Nadu, the grand alliance between the Congress/DMK/ MDMK/PMK/Left may receive an unexpected drubbing at the hands of 'Amma' who leads the ADMK. The latter is all set to reverse the results of the Lok Sabha election.
The AGP/BJP riding on the crest of 'minority migration' issue may win in Assam and the BJP may sweep Uttaranchal. In Punjab, despite the better efforts of the current Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, the results may go in favour of Akali Dal/BJP combine. Difficult days lie ahead as I have been saying for the last six months. This was evident from the crisis in Bihar.
Things in Karnataka have the potential to go out of hand as the JD(S) and the Congress, which are at the helm, continue to squabble. In fact, things in Jammu & Kashmir are critical with the Congress appointee, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, in need of support.
There is little progress in Uttar Pradesh where Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav has consolidated his position. On the other hand, Ms Mayawati of the BSP faces a difficult legal battle. The Congress has done very little to gain ground in the State. It is clear that Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her children do not seem keen to carry the battle to SP's doorsteps.
Undeniably, there is no dearth of talent in the UPA. Functionaries like Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister Shivraj Patil, Finance Minister P Chidambaram, Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar are as able as anybody. However, the system of dual power centres cannot function for long. In all this it is the Congress which will bear the heaviest loss.
The machinations by Bihar Governor Buta Singh to prevent JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar from forming the Government in Bihar and the questionable support he received from Ms Sonia Gandhi and Mr Manmohan Singh, undid Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav's plans. They supported all the tactics adopted by Mr Yadav to keep his hold on the State, even allowing him to rule Bihar by proxy.
He turned a blind eye to the sufferings of the people which resulted in a verdict where votes were cast cutting across caste and religious lines. We will discuss this in greater detail in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court judgement on the unconstitutional dissolution of Bihar Assembly is still due. It would be interesting to see what will be the political fallout of the apex court's verdict on the 'unconstitutional' act.
In the last two weeks before Bihar election, the signals were loud and clear. My friend Sharad Yadav, who is generally conservative, had forecast between 130 and140 seats to the JD(U)/BJP alliance. In fact, after the third round of polling he went into graphic details and on the basis of his daily tours in constituencies forecast that voting will not be on caste lines! Mr Arun Jaitley, who conducted the BJP campaign, gave an identical assessment and a similar seat prediction. I must admit we were all surprised and a little cautious about taking his predictions at face value.
The estimates which came from the Congress and the NCP were confusing. Moreover, it was clear that Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav was on the defensive. Credit must go to leaders of both the winning parties as all of them, including Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, BJP president LK Advani, Mr Arun Jaitley, Ms Uma Bharati, Mr Sharad Yadav, Mr Nitish Kumar and Mr George Fernandes, were in the field campaigning for the NDA. They were all over Bihar touring the length and breadth of the State.
The so-called secular forces comprising RJD/Congress/ Left have been shown the door by Bihar's electorate. The JD(U)/BJP alliance has gained from every political party. But in all this Mr Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP seems to have been 'squeezed' out. As I wrote last week, the time has come for Mr Paswan to take some important decisions for the future. He may well be an important part of the Third Front in case he is held responsible for the 'defeat', and given the short shrift in the UPA.
On the other hand, Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav is in serious trouble. Besides the party's rout in the election, he has several legal cases to contend with. He is dogged by Rs 900 crore 'fodder scam' and other scandals. There will be little protection from the State Government. To make matters worse, the Supreme Court is already looking into many matters concerning him and his family which will make it difficult for the Central investigative agencies to 'delay or be evasive'. Matters within the RJD, which includes leaders like Shahabuddin, Pappu Yadav, Anand Mohan, Subhas and Sadhu Yadav, can get out of hand.
The road ahead is thus difficult for Mr Yadav. As if this was not enough, he has substantially lost his political base. The 25 MPs who support Mr Yadav at the Centre seem to be his only security as the UPA cannot stay in power without his support. A 'coup' within the RJD cannot be ruled out as Mr Yadav becomes a 'liability' for the future.
In the last general election the NDA lost 50 seats. This loss was compounded by the poor performance of the TDP in Andhra Pradesh and ADMK in Tamil Nadu. This paved the way for the UPA to form Government. However, the trend is reversing once again. As numbers determine who will be in power in a coalition Government, let us see what the future holds for us.
All parties remain in touch in order to work out possible alliances when the need arises. As Mr Nitish Kumar humbly and with dignity accepts his responsibility as the Chief Minister of Bihar. Let us felicitate the people of the State who have voted for good governance and development casting away caste and religious prejudices. One must congratulate the Election Commission which ensured that the elections were conducted in a free and fair manner.
The Governor has been 'evicted' from his house in New Delhi and may well lose his post in Bihar. However, in all fairness, he was only carrying out 'orders'. The Bihar elections have made it clear that those who depend on criminal-turned-politicians to deliver the 'goods' never succeed in the long run. What happened in Bihar can happen in other States as well. Needless to say, this would be a boon for Indian democracy.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Arun Nehru
In the last six months, I have written consistently about the Third Front. My writings were based on the assumption that both the Congress and the BJP would weaken which would result in realignment of political forces. The Congress does not have leaders who can provide an able leadership to the party and the BJP simply cannot determine a pattern for the future.
As 2005 will become history and we step into 2006, the political graph of the ADMK and the TDP will show a sharp rise. This will enable both the parties to have a decisive say in politics of the future. The Bihar election are first step towards this change.
General election can take place any time now. My prediction is that it will be held before 2006 ends or in early 2007. In Bihar the RJD/Congress/Left alliance has been humbled. With one down and six more elections to go, it would be a miracle if the Congress can win even a single Assembly election.
The Left is all set to sweep West Bengal once again with Trinamul Congress coming second. The same will be true in Kerala where the LDF will trounce UDF. On the other hand in Tamil Nadu, the grand alliance between the Congress/DMK/ MDMK/PMK/Left may receive an unexpected drubbing at the hands of 'Amma' who leads the ADMK. The latter is all set to reverse the results of the Lok Sabha election.
The AGP/BJP riding on the crest of 'minority migration' issue may win in Assam and the BJP may sweep Uttaranchal. In Punjab, despite the better efforts of the current Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh, the results may go in favour of Akali Dal/BJP combine. Difficult days lie ahead as I have been saying for the last six months. This was evident from the crisis in Bihar.
Things in Karnataka have the potential to go out of hand as the JD(S) and the Congress, which are at the helm, continue to squabble. In fact, things in Jammu & Kashmir are critical with the Congress appointee, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, in need of support.
There is little progress in Uttar Pradesh where Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav has consolidated his position. On the other hand, Ms Mayawati of the BSP faces a difficult legal battle. The Congress has done very little to gain ground in the State. It is clear that Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her children do not seem keen to carry the battle to SP's doorsteps.
Undeniably, there is no dearth of talent in the UPA. Functionaries like Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Home Minister Shivraj Patil, Finance Minister P Chidambaram, Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar are as able as anybody. However, the system of dual power centres cannot function for long. In all this it is the Congress which will bear the heaviest loss.
The machinations by Bihar Governor Buta Singh to prevent JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar from forming the Government in Bihar and the questionable support he received from Ms Sonia Gandhi and Mr Manmohan Singh, undid Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav's plans. They supported all the tactics adopted by Mr Yadav to keep his hold on the State, even allowing him to rule Bihar by proxy.
He turned a blind eye to the sufferings of the people which resulted in a verdict where votes were cast cutting across caste and religious lines. We will discuss this in greater detail in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court judgement on the unconstitutional dissolution of Bihar Assembly is still due. It would be interesting to see what will be the political fallout of the apex court's verdict on the 'unconstitutional' act.
In the last two weeks before Bihar election, the signals were loud and clear. My friend Sharad Yadav, who is generally conservative, had forecast between 130 and140 seats to the JD(U)/BJP alliance. In fact, after the third round of polling he went into graphic details and on the basis of his daily tours in constituencies forecast that voting will not be on caste lines! Mr Arun Jaitley, who conducted the BJP campaign, gave an identical assessment and a similar seat prediction. I must admit we were all surprised and a little cautious about taking his predictions at face value.
The estimates which came from the Congress and the NCP were confusing. Moreover, it was clear that Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav was on the defensive. Credit must go to leaders of both the winning parties as all of them, including Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, BJP president LK Advani, Mr Arun Jaitley, Ms Uma Bharati, Mr Sharad Yadav, Mr Nitish Kumar and Mr George Fernandes, were in the field campaigning for the NDA. They were all over Bihar touring the length and breadth of the State.
The so-called secular forces comprising RJD/Congress/ Left have been shown the door by Bihar's electorate. The JD(U)/BJP alliance has gained from every political party. But in all this Mr Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP seems to have been 'squeezed' out. As I wrote last week, the time has come for Mr Paswan to take some important decisions for the future. He may well be an important part of the Third Front in case he is held responsible for the 'defeat', and given the short shrift in the UPA.
On the other hand, Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav is in serious trouble. Besides the party's rout in the election, he has several legal cases to contend with. He is dogged by Rs 900 crore 'fodder scam' and other scandals. There will be little protection from the State Government. To make matters worse, the Supreme Court is already looking into many matters concerning him and his family which will make it difficult for the Central investigative agencies to 'delay or be evasive'. Matters within the RJD, which includes leaders like Shahabuddin, Pappu Yadav, Anand Mohan, Subhas and Sadhu Yadav, can get out of hand.
The road ahead is thus difficult for Mr Yadav. As if this was not enough, he has substantially lost his political base. The 25 MPs who support Mr Yadav at the Centre seem to be his only security as the UPA cannot stay in power without his support. A 'coup' within the RJD cannot be ruled out as Mr Yadav becomes a 'liability' for the future.
In the last general election the NDA lost 50 seats. This loss was compounded by the poor performance of the TDP in Andhra Pradesh and ADMK in Tamil Nadu. This paved the way for the UPA to form Government. However, the trend is reversing once again. As numbers determine who will be in power in a coalition Government, let us see what the future holds for us.
All parties remain in touch in order to work out possible alliances when the need arises. As Mr Nitish Kumar humbly and with dignity accepts his responsibility as the Chief Minister of Bihar. Let us felicitate the people of the State who have voted for good governance and development casting away caste and religious prejudices. One must congratulate the Election Commission which ensured that the elections were conducted in a free and fair manner.
The Governor has been 'evicted' from his house in New Delhi and may well lose his post in Bihar. However, in all fairness, he was only carrying out 'orders'. The Bihar elections have made it clear that those who depend on criminal-turned-politicians to deliver the 'goods' never succeed in the long run. What happened in Bihar can happen in other States as well. Needless to say, this would be a boon for Indian democracy.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->